Recently, ByteDance launched its flagship AI video generation model, Seedance 2.0, which integrates video generation, audio generation, and narrative control into a unified framework. This model demonstrates significant generational advantages in audio-visual consistency, long-video stability, and controllability, attracting widespread attention. Many view it as a concentrated display of technological advancements in AI, marking a transition from single-point tools to industrial-scale applications.
Against this backdrop, market rumors have long suggested that ByteDance is Cambricon's largest customer. However, whether Cambricon can expect further benefits remains uncertain. Reports indicate that ByteDance's chip R&D team has begun large-scale recruitment for positions such as chip architecture and SOC design, suggesting a move toward reducing reliance on external suppliers.
Cambricon's performance forecast, released at the end of January, presents a mixed picture. While revenue is expected to increase by 410.87% to 496.02% year-over-year, the full-year revenue projection of 6 to 7 billion yuan, averaging 6.5 billion yuan, implies a fourth-quarter revenue of less than 1.9 billion yuan. Quarterly revenues for the previous six quarters were 39 million yuan, 121 million yuan, 989 million yuan, 1.111 billion yuan, 1.769 billion yuan, and 1.727 billion yuan, respectively. Notably, the last three quarters showed no sequential growth.
Profitability metrics are even more concerning. The full-year net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 1.85 billion and 2.15 billion yuan. Taking the midpoint of 2 billion yuan, the fourth-quarter net profit would be only 400 million yuan, slightly higher than the first quarter of 2025 but significantly lower than the second and third quarters. This indicates a substantial decline in Cambricon's net profit margin from core operations during the fourth quarter.
While it is unclear how these figures will impact the secondary market or to what extent, Cambricon's stock price remained stable the day after the earnings forecast was released but fell by 9.18% on the third day.
Predicting Cambricon's future performance is challenging, not only for individual analysts but also for securities firms, including Guosheng Securities. Guosheng Securities has recently gained attention not only due to internal disputes but also because its February 3 research report, titled "Full-Year Profit Turnaround in 2025, Scaling Effects Accelerate," is the most recent analysis of Cambricon in the WIND system.
The report highlights strong AI computing demand, Cambricon's leading chip technology, accelerated customer adoption, and large-scale commercial deployment. It projects revenues of 6.368 billion yuan, 13.091 billion yuan, and 20.953 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.062 billion yuan, 4.363 billion yuan, and 7.018 billion yuan, respectively.
However, these figures represent a significant downward revision compared to Guosheng Securities' August 2025 report, which described Cambricon as a key player in the AI era, likening it to East Money during the "Internet+" boom. The earlier report projected revenues of 8.522 billion yuan, 17.036 billion yuan, and 25.55 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.912 billion yuan, 5.955 billion yuan, and 9.153 billion yuan, respectively.
Comparing the two reports, revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been reduced by 20% to 25%, while net profit projections have been cut by approximately 25%.
Although securities firm forecasts should be taken with caution, Guosheng Securities' comparison of Cambricon to East Money is particularly noteworthy. East Money's stock surged 800% between October 2014 and April 2015, and by 2,000% over a slightly longer period. However, after the market peak, its share price fell from around 13 yuan to under 4 yuan by June 2017, a decline of nearly 80%.
Similarly, Cambricon's stock has risen 2,000% since its low in October 2022 and 800% since the rally began in August 2024, matching East Money's former strength. Whether Cambricon will follow East Money's path of a sharp decline remains uncertain. Guosheng Securities' analogy may serve as a metaphor or even a cautionary tale for Cambricon's future, adding an element of intrigue to the unfolding narrative.
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