On Monday, global financial markets experienced notable fluctuations following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariff policies. The U.S. dollar index initially dipped to around 97.36 before recovering slightly to the 97.78 area. Spot gold took advantage of the situation, breaking through the $5,150 barrier and reaching a high near $5,176, marking a three-week peak. The U.S. Treasury market displayed a pattern of rising first and then stabilizing; the 10-year Treasury yield briefly declined due to risk-off sentiment but gradually recovered to approximately 4.074% during the European session. Overall, markets are repricing U.S. policy uncertainty, with structural divergence in asset prices becoming increasingly pronounced.
The tariff ruling impacted the U.S. dollar, with Treasury yields emerging as a critical variable. Last Friday's Supreme Court decision found that former President Trump's broad tariff measures exceeded executive authority, directly triggering a risk-averse reaction at the market's open on Monday. The dollar index fell to 97.36 during the early Asian session. Although it later recouped some losses to around 97.83, technical analysis suggests that concerns over policy uncertainty have not fully dissipated.
Analyzing the transmission mechanism from the Treasury market, the volatility in the dollar's movement is closely tied to the pace of recovery in Treasury yields. Based on the 240-minute chart, the 10-year Treasury yield is currently in a phase of consolidation following a significant decline, with the latest quote at 4.074% hovering near the Bollinger Band midline at 4.075%. Technically, the MACD histogram has turned positive from negative, indicating that downward momentum has been sufficiently released and short-term rebound momentum is accumulating. However, the RSI remains in a neutral zone at 47.02, suggesting balanced market sentiment without a clear directional signal yet.
Notably, analysts from prominent institutions point out that the initial market reaction to the ruling is more of an emotion-driven knee-jerk fluctuation rather than a fundamental shift in the global economic landscape. There remains a possibility that tariff policies could be maintained through other legal channels, meaning the dollar's subsequent trajectory will heavily depend on the breakout direction of Treasury yields. If the 10-year yield can firmly hold above the 50-period moving average at 4.086%, the dollar index may gain medium-term support. Conversely, a break below the lower Bollinger Band at 4.042% could subject the dollar to a new round of adjustment pressure.
Spot gold demonstrated typical safe-haven asset characteristics in this round of trading. It was quoted near $5,162 per ounce, having reached an intraday high of $5,176, representing a gain of over 1% from Friday's close. The rally in gold is linked to the Treasury market through a dual transmission path: on one hand, low and fluctuating Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold; on the other, safe-haven demand driven by policy uncertainty directly enhances gold's allocation value.
Technical analysis of the 240-minute chart shows gold is in a clear short-term uptrend. After hitting a low of $4,842 on February 14th, gold prices have consecutively closed higher, steadily ascending along the Bollinger Band midline and breaking through the previous consolidation platform high of $5,118. Bollinger Band indicators place the upper band at $5,183 and the midline support at $5,005. The current price is near the upper band, indicating potential short-term technical overbought pressure. The RSI reading of 69.52 is approaching the overbought threshold of 70. Although the MACD red bars continue to expand, they are nearing peak levels seen at previous highs, suggesting upward momentum may gradually weaken.
Differing from conventional analysis, gold's safe-haven effect in this instance is primarily transmitted through the bond market mechanism. Concerns over Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions—particularly the strained relations between the U.S. and Iran—are strengthening investor demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Analysis from a major investment bank indicates that potential oil price shocks from geopolitical conflicts could impact inflation expectations, leading to a reassessment of gold's value as an inflation hedge. The simultaneous strengthening of the Swiss Franc, which rose 0.3% to 0.7736, further corroborates rising demand for safe-haven assets.
Over the next 2-3 trading sessions, the gold market will face a contest between technical pressures and fundamental support. Technically, spot gold on the 240-minute chart has entered a key resistance area: the upper Bollinger Band at $5,183 constitutes immediate short-term resistance. A break above this level could pave the way for a test of the previous platform high. However, momentum indicators show the RSI nearing overbought territory, and although the MACD red bars are expanding, the rate of increase is slowing, hinting at potential short-term technical correction needs. Support below requires vigilance for a potential pullback towards the Bollinger Band midline at $5,005.
Regarding Treasury yields, the market is at a critical juncture of balance between bullish and bearish forces. The 10-year yield is oscillating within a 4.05%-4.11% range as the market awaits a clear breakout signal. Despite an initial push higher in bond prices due to risk-off sentiment, the gains subsequently narrowed, indicating lingering divergence in how the market is pricing policy uncertainty. Views from well-known institutions suggest that attention in the coming days should focus on a series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as any signals regarding the policy path could trigger a breakout in Treasury yields.
The trajectory of the U.S. dollar index is more complex. Although suppressed by short-term policy uncertainty, the technical structure shows the index remains within a range-bound pattern between 96.49 and 98.06. The current price of 97.83 sits between the Bollinger Band midline at 97.59 and the upper band at 98.17. Although the MACD green bars have shortened, the DIFF line remains below the DEA line, indicating short-term momentum is still bearish. If it fails to effectively break above the recent high of 98.06 in the next few days, it might test the lower band support at 97.01 again.
Looking ahead over the next 2-3 trading sessions, market focus will revolve around three key areas: first, subsequent developments in U.S. tariff policy, specifically whether efforts are made to maintain the measures through other administrative means; second, the evolution of the U.S.-Iran situation, with the nuclear talks scheduled for later this week serving as a critical observation point; third, the密集表态 from Fed officials, from which the market will seek further guidance on the interest rate path.
For gold, short-term technical correction risks warrant caution. However, from a medium-term perspective, safe-haven demand fueled by the interplay of policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions still has room to unfold. If gold can hold above $5,160, it has the potential to test higher levels amid fluctuations. A loss of this level could lead to a retreat towards the $5,000 mark for support. For Treasury yields, the key focus is whether the 50-period moving average at 4.086% is held; maintaining above this level could allow the rebound to continue, otherwise a resumption of the downtrend is possible. The dollar index's range-bound pattern is unlikely to be broken in the short term, with the 97.00-98.40 box remaining its core trading range.
In summary, the core market矛盾 currently lies in the balance between safe-haven demand triggered by policy uncertainty and technical overbought pressures. Investors need to closely monitor the breakout direction of Treasury yields, as this will directly determine the next phase of movements for both the U.S. dollar and gold.
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