The Nasdaq Is Acting Strange. What That Means for Stocks

Barrons2021-03-16

On March 9, the Nasdaq Composite index did something it hadn’t done in nearly 20 years: It outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average by more than 3.5 percentage points—3.59, to be exact. Some ...

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Comments

Eellen
2021-03-16
Eellen
Interesting
Jamesncm
2021-03-16
Jamesncm
To invest or not to invest !!!
HLPA
2021-03-16
HLPA
Take great care guys. Dr Doom, where are you?
- HLPA:
  Forecasted this week could be on the brink
Matchapie
2021-03-16
Matchapie
interesting
MagPie
2021-03-16
MagPie
Interesting
Lemon8z
2021-03-16
Lemon8z
O

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What That Means for Stocks","media":"Barrons","content":"<div>\n<p>On March 9, the Nasdaq Composite index did something it hadn’t done in nearly 20 years: It outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average by more than 3.5 percentage points—3.59, to be exact.\nSome ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-nasdaq-is-acting-strange-what-that-means-for-stocks-51615859213?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1601382232898","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Nasdaq Is Acting Strange. 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What That Means for Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-16 18:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-nasdaq-is-acting-strange-what-that-means-for-stocks-51615859213?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>On March 9, the Nasdaq Composite index did something it hadn’t done in nearly 20 years: It outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average by more than 3.5 percentage points—3.59, to be exact.\nSome ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-nasdaq-is-acting-strange-what-that-means-for-stocks-51615859213?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-nasdaq-is-acting-strange-what-that-means-for-stocks-51615859213?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","article_id":"1134955391","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134955391","pubTimestamp":1615889550,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1601382232898","name":"Barrons"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"On March 9, the Nasdaq Composite index did something it hadn’t done in nearly 20 years: It outperfor","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"纳斯达克的行为很奇怪。这对股票意味着什么","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"On March 9, the Nasdaq Composite index did something it hadn’t done in nearly 20 years: It outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average by more than 3.5 percentage points—3.59, to be exact.\nSome believe it to be bullish for the market as a whole for the tech-heavy Nasdaq to outperform the blue chips by this much. 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Over the three months prior to that top, there were no fewer than 14 trading sessions in which the Nasdaq’s alpha over the Dow was at least two percentage points. No other three-month period over the past 50 years has seen as many large positive alphas between the two indexes.\nIn fact, during the nearly 11-year secular bull market between the March 2009 low and the February 2020 high, there was just one trading session with that big of a Nasdaq alpha. Ominously, there have been two such days over the past month alone.\nIt’s not just positive Nasdaq alphas that are concerning. Large negative alphas are too. That’s noteworthy, since there has been a pickup recently in the number of such days as well. Over the past three months, for example, there have been four trading sessions with a Nasdaq alpha of greater than minus two percentage points. That brings the total number of large negative or positive alphas to six over the trailing six months. That’s the most since 2002.\nThis is illustrated by the accompanying chart, which shows the number of large positive or negative alphas by year since the early 1970s. Aside from the months immediately before the top of the dot-com bubble, and then the ensuing bear market, this year is shaping up to be a record.\nHow worried should you be by all this? At least somewhat, according to an analysis conducted for Barron’s by performance-tracking firm Hulbert Ratings. That analysis examined all trading sessions since the Nasdaq Composite was created in 1971, focusing on those days in which there were large alphas (more than two percentage points, positive or negative). A higher frequency of such days was associated with below-average market performance over the subsequent three months. Though the correlation was modest, it nevertheless reached the 95% confidence level that statisticians typically use when determining that a pattern is significant.\nYou shouldn’t be surprised by this result, since a healthy market is one that is firing on all cylinders. While tiny divergences probably don’t mean anything, and a big divergence unaccompanied by any others is probably not a big deal, it becomes a source of concern when large divergences become more frequent—as they have been recently.\nEven if you aren’t persuaded by this statistical significance, these results show that the market is risky right now. At a minimum, you should not be celebrating days like March 9 in which there was a large positive Nasdaq alpha over the Dow.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":325554073,"gmtCreate":1615908176892,"gmtModify":1704788376612,"author":{"id":"3574771607647825","authorId":"3574771607647825","authorIdStr":"3574771607647825","name":"Eellen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cbc0a268b9b34bfdb5dbf82ce98d474","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574771607647825"},"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325554073","repostId":1134955391,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":325666460,"gmtCreate":1615895387250,"gmtModify":1704788076782,"author":{"id":"3571120667520543","authorId":"3571120667520543","authorIdStr":"3571120667520543","name":"Jamesncm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b5a8cecfd626276c69a9bcb639f30d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571120667520543"},"htmlText":"To invest or not to invest !!!","listText":"To invest or not to invest !!!","text":"To invest or not to invest !!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/325666460","repostId":1134955391,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":325685956,"gmtCreate":1615894534275,"gmtModify":1704788062363,"author":{"id":"3569274903458035","authorId":"3569274903458035","authorIdStr":"3569274903458035","name":"HLPA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e7b987a9127c5a47dbc3ae02db548b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646756f1284a5a6480ed02cc4fa7d1d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569274903458035"},"htmlText":"Take great care guys. 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