Since September, select publishing groups have initiated tenders for 2026 spring textbooks, with November expected to be the peak period for bulk tenders. This demand-side support, combined with recent price hike notices from major paper manufacturers, has bolstered market confidence. As some producers raised ex-factory prices in early November, the woodfree offset paper market may enter an upward trend, though the extent of implementation hinges on overall November order volumes.
**Delayed Tenders Weigh on September-October Market** The woodfree offset paper market remained sluggish in September and October, exacerbated by the launch of 400,000 tons of new capacity in southern China. Publishers maintained a wait-and-see approach, with only sporadic tenders issued in central and northern regions. The overall tender pace lagged behind historical patterns, prolonging the market’s downward trajectory until prices stabilized in October. According to Sublime China Information data, as of October 28, the average price for 70g woodfree high-white offset paper stood at CNY 4,731/ton, while standard-white grades averaged CNY 4,430/ton, down 0.26% and 0.62% respectively from end-September.
**Producers Push for Price Hikes** With previously announced tender prices at moderate levels and expectations of concentrated November tenders, papermakers demonstrated strong pricing resolve. Multiple large manufacturers issued notices for a CNY 200/ton increase effective early November.
Additionally, 2025 paper prices hit five-year lows, keeping woodfree offset paper profitability in negative territory since July and straining producers’ margins. Recent rises in upstream pulp costs—broadleaf pulp averaged CNY 4,244/ton in October, up 0.60% monthly—further pressured production economics, reinforcing manufacturers’ determination to raise prices.
**Supply-Demand Imbalance Leaves November Hike Uncertain** Persistent oversupply persists in the woodfree offset market, with the southern China capacity expansion adding to inventory pressures. However, planned maintenance at select eastern China mills and idling of small-to-medium northern lines may slightly ease supply constraints. While tender-driven price hikes could lift market sentiment, weak social order demand and cautious dealer inventory management may limit acceptance of increases. Year-end volume-driven orders could also temper price movements.
In summary, November demand support remains modest, but proactive producer pricing and margin recovery efforts may nudge transaction prices marginally higher. Woodfree offset paper averages are projected to rise 1%-3% month-on-month in November.
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