Abstract
SSR Mining Inc will report its first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, 2026, Post Market; the preview below highlights consensus revenue and EPS expectations, the segment setup into Q1, and how pending portfolio actions may influence near-term performance and sentiment.Market Forecast
Based on current projections, SSR Mining Inc’s first-quarter 2026 revenue is estimated at 539.39 million US dollars, up 81.58% year over year, with estimated EPS at 0.86, up 558.24% year over year. Forecast visibility on margin is limited, though modeled EBIT is volatile at an estimated -71.42 million US dollars; EPS strength versus EBIT reflects non-operating and consolidation factors in early 2026 and a sharp recovery from the year-ago base.The company’s core businesses are expected to be balanced by seasonality: Marigold and CC&V typically weight production and unit costs toward the second half, while Puna’s profile is first-half weighted, supporting Q1 top line. The most promising segment near term is Puna, which delivered 459.50 million US dollars of revenue in 2025 and enters 2026 with first-half weighted throughput and disciplined AISC guidance; year-over-year segment revenue growth was not disclosed.
Last Quarter Review
In the fourth quarter of 2025, SSR Mining Inc posted revenue of 521.73 million US dollars (up 61.43% year over year), a gross profit margin of 56.62%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 181.00 million US dollars for a 34.78% net profit margin, and adjusted EPS of 0.88 (up 780.00% year over year). Operating momentum was strong into year-end with robust operating cash flow and free cash flow, underpinned by higher realized metal prices and solid site performance.Business highlights pointed to broad-based contributions: CC&V and Puna outperformed into the close of the year, and full-year revenue scale by major platforms stood at approximately 540.56 million US dollars at Marigold, 459.50 million US dollars at Puna (Pirquitas), 450.44 million US dollars at CC&V, and 179.14 million US dollars at Seabee; year-over-year segment growth rates were not specified.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core operations: Marigold and CC&V
The first quarter is typically a foundation-setting period for SSR Mining Inc’s large U.S. operations, with Marigold and CC&V entering 2026 on capex- and cost-weighted profiles that position them for stronger second-half run-rates. Company guidance indicates sustaining capital and unit costs skewed to the first half, particularly at Marigold, where fleet replacements and early-year plant upgrades elevate AISC before grades and stacking plans drive better second-half throughput. At CC&V, mine plans point to a 50–55% second-half production weighting, similar to Marigold’s cadence; sustaining capital is front-loaded and likely keeps AISC above the full-year range in the first half, with leach-pad developments progressing.Despite this H1 cost bulge, the modeled top line for Q1—539.39 million US dollars, up 81.58% year over year—suggests the portfolio can carry strong realized prices and higher consolidated volumes versus a low base, even as some sites absorb early-year sustaining capital and mine development. The EPS estimate of 0.86, implying 558.24% year-over-year growth, points to continued bottom-line leverage from higher throughput at key assets and mix benefits versus the difficult prior-year comparator. The gap between negative modeled EBIT and positive modeled EPS reflects non-operating items and consolidation effects in early 2026 that can mask underlying unit-cost and price dynamics at the operating level; this should normalize as production ramps into the second half and sustaining capital moderates.
Looking through Q1, the operating plan anticipates higher grades stacked at Marigold in the second quarter translating into rising production in the second half, while CC&V’s pad expansions and stacking program are paced for volume inflection later in the year. The combined effect is a back-half weighted production profile for the U.S. assets that, together with disciplined capital deployment, should improve unit economics as 2026 progresses. That cadence matters for interpreting Q1 prints: investors should weigh early-year cost intensity against the expected back-half volume uplift when judging the sustainability of revenue and EPS trends.
Near-term growth driver: Puna
The Puna complex enters 2026 with a favorable production and cost setup that is skewed toward the first half, supporting Q1 revenue momentum for the consolidated group. Through 2025, Puna delivered 459.50 million US dollars in revenue and more than 250 million US dollars in mine-site free cash flow, driven by record tonnes processed at the Pirquitas plant, tight operational control, and improved cash costs and AISC. For 2026, guidance implies plant throughputs of roughly 5,250–5,500 tonnes per day at grades supportive of first-half weighted silver production, while AISC of 20–22 US dollars per payable ounce and cost-of-sales guidance in the low-20s bracket keep margins resilient at prevailing realized prices.In the context of Q1 expectations, Puna’s volume weighting provides a counterbalance to Marigold and CC&V’s back-half bias, supporting the consolidated revenue estimate and creating a more even distribution of contribution across the portfolio. With continued engineering and near-mine development work under way at Chinchillas and the brownfield Cortaderas target, Puna retains multiple potential pathways for resource conversion and life extension, albeit those are multiquarter catalysts rather than immediate Q1 drivers. The combination of disciplined AISC, throughput reliability, and first-half production weighting makes Puna the segment with the most visible near-term uplift to consolidated sales and cash generation.
From a risk-management standpoint, Puna’s cost structure and operational consistency have historically produced defensible cash margins across cycles, and that remains relevant as the company absorbs early-year sustaining capital elsewhere. Given the Q1 revenue and EPS growth baselines implied by current estimates, incremental strength out of Puna can provide cushion if early-year cost intensity at other assets proves a sharper headwind than modeled. Monitoring plant throughput, metallurgical recoveries, and realized prices will help assess how much of the Q1 consensus uplift is underpinned by Puna’s execution versus broader price leverage.
Key stock-price drivers this quarter
The most visible swing factor around the print is progress on the planned divestiture of the company’s 80% stake in the Çöpler district for 1.50 billion US dollars in cash, which management expects to close in the third quarter subject to customary conditions. While that transaction does not directly affect Q1 operating metrics, incremental milestones—regulatory, contractual, and funding—can reshape medium-term capital allocation expectations at SSR Mining Inc, especially given the announced share buyback authorization of up to 300 million US dollars and a focus on organic growth at core sites. Market participants will be attuned to any management commentary that updates the timeline or clarifies use of proceeds, both of which can influence sentiment and valuation multiples even if Q1 numbers land close to consensus.Commodity-price sensitivity is the second major lever: the company’s Q4 print benefited from robust realized prices, and Q1 revenue and EPS estimates embed continued price support. A sustained favorable price environment helps offset early-year AISC pressure at the U.S. gold operations and enhances Puna’s cash margins. Conversely, a pullback in realized prices would filter quickly into unit margins at Marigold and CC&V in a quarter already front-loaded with sustaining capital, with less offset from grade-driven throughput given the back-half weighted production profile. As always, realized price versus modeled decks will be a focal point of the Q1 discussion.
Finally, the cadence of sustaining and development capital, together with the timing of leach-pad expansions and mine development milestones, will shape how investors extrapolate Q1 into the second and third quarters. The company has signaled that sustaining capital is concentrated in the first half, implying sequential margin and cash flow improvement as the year progresses. If Q1 disclosures reaffirm that schedule and provide clarity on grade progression and stacking plans at Marigold and CC&V, the market may treat any early-year cost headwinds as transitory. The interplay of these factors with share repurchases and the pending portfolio reshaping creates a setup in which qualitative guidance can be as important as the headline numbers for shaping the near-term share-price path.
Analyst Opinions
Across recently published views, the majority skew bullish: two Buy ratings versus one Sell among the opinions collected in the current-window screen, implying a 67% bullish to 33% bearish split. On the bullish side, UBS maintained a Buy rating with a C$58.00 target, citing a favorable multi-asset free-cash-flow profile into 2026 and upside from capital deployment once the Çöpler exit closes. ATB Capital Markets reaffirmed its Buy rating with a C$53.00 target, highlighting operational momentum into year-end 2025, the first-half weighted contribution from Puna in 2026 that supports near-term revenue, and incremental value from the company’s flexibility to return capital via the announced buyback authorization.These bullish stances converge around three near-term drivers. First, consensus expects first-quarter revenue to grow 81.58% year over year to 539.39 million US dollars, which, if delivered alongside an 0.86 EPS print (up 558.24% year over year), would reinforce confidence in the portfolio’s ability to translate higher volumes and realized prices into the bottom line even with early-year sustaining capital. Second, Puna’s steady execution and first-half weighting provide a visible underpinning to Q1 estimates while the U.S. operations ramp into stronger second-half volumes, limiting the risk of a material top-line miss in the seasonally heavier capex window. Third, the pending 1.50 billion US dollars Çöpler divestiture and the 300 million US dollars buyback authorization are viewed as clear, identifiable catalysts that can streamline the platform, simplify the cost base by removing care-and-maintenance drag once closed, and enhance per-share metrics through repurchases.
In synthesizing these views, the bullish majority is effectively underwriting a “bridge quarter” thesis: Q1 showcases top-line resilience and EPS leverage versus a low year-ago comparator, while management simultaneously de-risks capital plans and advances portfolio actions that can compound free cash flow in the second half and beyond. For the print, investors focused on this narrative will look for confirmation of the 539.39 million US dollars revenue and 0.86 EPS markers, steady-to-better performance at Puna, and firm signals that sustaining capital and AISC taper as planned into midyear at Marigold and CC&V. Clear management commentary on Çöpler closing milestones and refreshed capital allocation priorities can amplify the positive tone of the quarter even if early-year cost intensity keeps EBIT volatile.
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