A new round of fuel price adjustments is scheduled for next Tuesday. Since the onset of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, international oil prices have experienced continued volatility, drawing significant market attention. Domestic refined oil product prices have followed an upward trend, having previously completed six consecutive increases. However, with recent easing tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices have shown a downward trend, raising expectations for a corresponding decrease in domestic fuel prices.
According to data from "Today's Oil Price Check," on April 17th (the 8th working day of the current pricing cycle), gasoline and diesel prices are projected to decrease by 500 yuan and 480 yuan per ton, respectively. These figures substantially exceed the 50 yuan per ton reduction threshold. Barring any major unforeseen changes, the new pricing cycle is expected to result in lower fuel costs based on recent price trends. The adjustment is scheduled to take effect at 24:00 on Tuesday, April 21st. With two working days remaining until the pricing window opens, the final adjustment figures will be subject to official announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission. Drivers are advised to consider postponing refueling until after the adjustment.
Notably, the government implemented price control measures during the last two adjustment cycles. On March 23rd, while gasoline and diesel prices were slated to increase by 2,205 yuan and 2,120 yuan per ton respectively, the actual increases were limited to 1,160 yuan and 1,115 yuan after intervention. Similarly, on April 7th, proposed increases of 800 yuan and 770 yuan per ton were moderated to actual rises of 420 yuan and 400 yuan.
At a State Council Information Office press conference on April 17th, Vice Chairman Wang Changlin of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that in response to the impact of changing international conditions on China's oil and gas imports, comprehensive measures have been taken to effectively ensure sufficient domestic supply and stable market operations. He highlighted these efforts as demonstrating the effectiveness of China's new energy system development. During the "16th Five-Year Plan" period, policies will focus on promoting the safe, reliable, and orderly replacement of fossil fuels, expanding domestic energy production, enhancing reserves for oil and natural gas, and strengthening the foundational role of traditional energy security.
Regarding international oil prices and Middle East developments, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announced on April 17th that, following a ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this development. The positive news of the strait's reopening contributed to a decline in international oil prices. On April 17th, oil prices fell significantly. At the close of trading, the price for May delivery of West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $83.85 per barrel, down 11.45%. The price for June delivery of Brent crude on the London ICE Futures Europe exchange settled at $90.38 per barrel, down 9.07%.
However, analysts caution that operational uncertainties and agreement risks related to the Strait of Hormuz continue to create nervousness in oil markets. Iran's declaration of "full access" for merchant ships triggered a substantial sell-off in oil; prices could potentially rebound once the situation becomes clearer in the coming days. Shipowner confidence has not yet fully recovered, and the risk of the agreement breaking down remains. Shipping companies have cautiously welcomed Iran's announcement but stated that further clarification is needed before resuming transit, particularly regarding security risks such as the presence of naval mines.
A senior Iranian official stated that all merchant vessels, including those flying the US flag, would be permitted passage through the strait, but transit plans must be coordinated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Vessels will be restricted to lanes deemed safe by Iran, while warships will remain prohibited.
Separately, on April 17th local time, the US Department of the Treasury issued a license concerning the delivery, transportation, and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products. According to the published document, authorization is granted for the delivery and sale of Russian crude and products that were loaded onto vessels by April 17th. The Treasury Department indicated this authorization will remain in effect until May 16th. This follows a general license issued on March 12th that temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil to mitigate the impact of Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions on energy markets.
Also on April 17th, the US Department of Energy's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Project Management Office announced it would lend over 26 million barrels of crude oil from the reserve to nine petroleum companies. This marks the third release of strategic reserves by the Trump administration since the conflict began on February 28th, aimed at stabilizing prices. Under the rules, such loans require companies to return the oil with an additional quantity provided as compensation.
In the early hours of April 18th, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated on social media that several declarations previously made by US President Trump on a social media platform were "untrue." Ghalibaf emphasized that if the US continues to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz cannot remain open. He asserted that transit through the strait must follow "designated routes" and be conducted under "Iranian authorization." The operational status of the strait and its regulations will be determined by on-the-ground conditions, not by social media announcements. Ghalibaf noted that media warfare and public opinion manipulation are significant aspects of conflict, but the Iranian people will not be influenced by such tactics.
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