Gold Climbs Back Above $4,500 as Weak Job Data and Dovish Fed Comments Reshape Rate Bets

Deep News14:00

Spot gold mounted a strong comeback on September 3, closing the session at $4,491.85 per ounce with a 2.37% gain, after briefly breaching the $4,500 mark and touching an intraday high of $4,510.97. The upward momentum carried into early trading on September 4, with COMEX gold futures also strengthening in tandem.

Market sentiment was fueled by two key developments. According to CNBC, the U.S. ADP employment report for August came in far below expectations, with only 38,000 new jobs added—the lowest level this year. Adding to the shift, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered an unexpectedly dovish message on Thursday, stating that if upcoming data confirms inflation pressures are cooling, he would lean toward supporting a pause in rate hikes at the next Fed policy meeting. Borrowing John Lennon's classic phrasing, Waller said, "Give inflation a chance to cool. We can wait one meeting."

That stance immediately triggered a market repricing. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from 63% on Wednesday to around 48%. The U.S. dollar index fell back below the 99.00 level, nearing a one-week low, while the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to approximately 4.75% from a high of 4.81%. A softer dollar reduces the cost of gold for overseas buyers, and lower Treasury yields diminish the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

On the institutional front, Societe Generale noted in its latest report that the bulk of the impact from the Fed's hawkish repricing has already been absorbed by the market, and that gold's downside risk is becoming increasingly limited. The bank maintained its "strategically bullish" stance. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs reiterated its year-end 2026 gold price target of $4,900 per ounce, and State Street Global Advisors kept its six-month target at $5,000 per ounce. Looking ahead, market participants will focus intently on Friday's release of the U.S. August non-farm payrolls report—the most critical data point ahead of the Fed's September policy meeting.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.