According to Woofun AI, against the backdrop of AI-related stocks leading US technology shares higher, capital has accelerated its flow into the digital asset market, pushing Bitcoin successfully back above the key psychological threshold of $77,000.
This price recovery not only establishes a short-term core anchor but also reflects the spillover effect of recovering risk appetite in traditional financial markets onto crypto assets.
Although political uncertainty triggered by the US midterm elections continues to unsettle market sentiment, analysts broadly believe that based on historical cycles and current technical patterns, Bitcoin possesses significant upside potential over the medium to long term, and the market is gradually seeking a new equilibrium point amid short-term fluctuations.
Looking at specific price data and capital flows, the market exhibits clear bullish repair characteristics.
As of 8:19 AM on the 4th, Bitcoin on South Korea's domestic digital asset exchange Upbit was trading at 104.85 million Korean won, up 1.17% from 9 AM the previous day.
On the globally leading exchange Binance, Bitcoin rose 1.32% from 24 hours earlier to reach $77,861.
Major altcoins also performed strongly, with Ethereum rising 1.60% to trade at $2,290, while Ripple gained 2.38% to trade at $1.28.
Woofun AI on-chain data shows that approximately $52.52 million worth of Bitcoin positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, of which about 59.1%, or $31.06 million, were long positions.
Total liquidations across the market amounted to approximately $174.45 million, indicating that leverage cleansing has largely concluded.
This rebound momentum stems directly from the strong performance of US stocks.
In the previous day's New York session, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.6%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.7%.
Semiconductor stocks that had been weakened by concerns over declining profitability from massive AI investments regained buying interest after AMD (AMD.US) and server manufacturer Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) delivered revenue forecasts above expectations.
Additionally, Meta Platforms (META.US) issued corporate bonds for the first time in six months, successfully raising $15 billion, demonstrating strong investment demand.
As US stocks stabilized, Bitcoin also broke away from the low of approximately $76,300 touched on the 30th of last month, recovering to near $77,000, with price volatility notably diminished.
However, the key variable determining short-term market direction remains the political uncertainty brought by the US midterm elections.
If Democrats expand their seats in this election, the congressional power structure currently controlled by Republicans could change, thereby constraining various policies promoted by the Trump administration.
Market analysis firm Covey Letter pointed out that concerns over AI investment alone are insufficient to explain the recent weakness in US stocks, and that major potential changes in the parliamentary power structure have already been reflected in financial markets.
The market is incorporating the uncertainty accompanying political change into its pricing and reflecting a political deadlock that could persist over the next two years.
Meanwhile, the decline in international oil prices is viewed as a positive factor in easing inflationary pressure.
Although the US launched further airstrikes on Iran's Kharg Island, the possibility of resolving the dispute through diplomatic channels remains, and the price of West Texas Intermediate crude still fell below $94 per barrel, at one point dropping to $93.59, the lowest level since the 15th of last month, with the geopolitical risk premium not surging as expected.
Unlike the short-term volatility before the midterm elections, the medium-to-long-term outlook for Bitcoin appears more optimistic.
Bitcoin's price is currently above its 200-day moving average, which stands at approximately $73,169.
By contrast, during the midterm elections of 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin traded 35%, 9%, and 22% below its 200-day moving average, respectively, caught in long-term downtrends.
This year's price pattern has undergone a fundamental reversal.
Historical data further supports this view: in the months following those three elections, Bitcoin experienced volatility or slight declines, but its price rose at the 12-month mark after each election day.
Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, stated that while historical trends suggest Bitcoin could strengthen over the next 12 months, caution is warranted in the short term.
He warned that if the war escalates or investment sentiment in AI-related sectors deteriorates, it could pressure risk assets and lead to increased short-term volatility.
This marks another critical juncture where the market faces a convergence of political and technical factors, following the previous election cycle.
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