The non-ferrous metals sector may be poised for a catch-up rally. On August 5, the Huabao Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159876), the largest and most liquid fund tracking the same underlying index, surged 5.15% in intraday trading, closing at its daily high and strongly reclaiming its 250-day moving average. With positive earnings forecasts and a low price base, capital is actively positioning for a rebound opportunity. The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159876) saw a net fund inflow of 47.4 million units during the session, following a cumulative inflow of 127 million yuan over the previous five trading days.
Among its constituent stocks, indium concept stock Yunnan Germanium Co., Ltd. and semiconductor materials stock Youyan New Materials both hit their daily upside limits. Lead-zinc leaders Zhuye Group and Xingye Yinxi rose over 9%. Gold sector leaders Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Gold, along with tungsten leader Xiamen Tungsten, gained more than 8%, leading the sector's gains.
On the macro front, positive progress in US-Iran negotiations and expectations of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower. With easing inflation concerns, expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes have marginally receded, lifting sentiment in the precious metals sector overall. Additionally, the US government has opened a public comment period on expanding the scope of metal tariffs, proposing additional duties on industrial products like welding machines and cranes. This has fueled expectations of increased protectionism in industrial metals trade. A confluence of favorable macro factors is setting a tone for recovery in the non-ferrous metals sector, while different categories are driven by their own supply-demand dynamics and industrial logic, creating a multi-point rally across precious metals, industrial metals, and minor metals.
Gold Sector Outlook
Spot gold has risen over 2%, approaching the $4,200 per ounce mark. CITIC Securities believes that the current pullback in gold prices has approached historical extremes, suggesting that the $4,000 per ounce level is likely the bottom of this cycle. Looking ahead, it expects the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices to shift from a drag to a catalyst. The Fed's monetary policy may be more accommodative than the market anticipates, and coupled with rising US deficit spending, gold prices are expected to return to an upward trend within the year.
Copper Sector Outlook
Global copper supply is facing a dual blow from "self-imposed production cuts" and "natural disasters." According to ICSG data, the global copper market deficit could widen to 300,000 tons by 2026. As of July 30, domestic inventories of electrolytic copper fell to 124,600 tons, down over 80% from their March peak. CICC estimates that global copper supply growth could turn negative by 2026, as insufficient capital expenditure constrains long-term supply. Driven by demand from "new industries, new regions, and new inventory cycles," the global copper supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, supporting a higher copper price center.
Minor Metals Sector Outlook
Guosen Securities notes that global molybdenum consumption is projected at approximately 303,000 tons in 2025, up 4.31% year-on-year, with ferro-molybdenum tender data from January to May 2026 growing 8% year-on-year. Meanwhile, supply growth from 2026 to 2028 is expected to be only 1.2% annually, keeping the supply-demand balance tight. Germanium supply is highly concentrated in China, which accounts for 67.9% of global production. Against the backdrop of surging demand for optical fibers driven by AI, germanium demand is expected to grow over 15% annually. Tungsten production is constrained by mining quotas, with the first batch of 2025 quotas down 6.5% year-on-year, further strengthening its strategic attributes.
Wanlian Securities states that in the context of long-term AI industry expansion and supply constraints on minor metals, leading companies with resource reserves and production capacity advantages are expected to show stronger certainty in earnings growth.
A rebound from a low base is looking promising. The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its linked funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track an underlying index that comprehensively covers copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, lithium, tungsten, molybdenum, tin, and other industries. This full-sector coverage allows for better capture of the broad beta rally in the entire sector. The ETF is also a margin trading target, offering an efficient tool for a one-click investment in the non-ferrous metals sector. As of August 4, the Huabao Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159876) had a net asset value of 1.517 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 103 million yuan year-to-date, making it the largest and most liquid ETF among the three tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index.
Source: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, as of August 5, 2026. Broker views referenced from: CITIC Securities report on August 5, "CITIC: $4,000 Likely the Bottom, Gold Prices Expected to Return to Uptrend Within the Year"; CICC report on November 8, 2025, "CICC 2026 Outlook: Non-Ferrous Metals: Riding the Wind and Waves"; Guosen Securities report on June 12, "Metal Industry 2026 Mid-Year Strategy: Supply Constraints + Demand Resilience, Awaiting Valuation Reshaping"; Wanlian Securities report on August 5, "Minor Metals Sector Sees Broad Gains, 6 Stocks Hit Limit Up!".
Risk Warning: The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metals ETF passively tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index. The index base date is December 31, 2013, and it was launched on July 13, 2015. The constituent stocks are adjusted according to the index compilation rules. Historical back-tested performance does not guarantee future index performance. The constituent stocks mentioned in this article are for demonstration only and do not constitute investment advice of any form, nor do they represent the holdings or trading activity of any fund managed by the fund manager. The fund manager assesses the risk level of this fund as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors. The suitability match opinion is subject to the sales institution. Any information appearing in this article is for reference only. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions. The views, analysis, and forecasts in this article do not constitute investment advice to readers. The fund manager is not liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks. Past performance of a fund does not represent its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Invest in funds with caution.
Comments