On April 7, renewed discussions regarding Bitcoin's security have drawn market attention. Starlink Capital indicated that while quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin's blockchain do not currently exist, the potential threat is no longer merely theoretical. Recent research published by Google suggests that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could potentially crack Bitcoin's core encryption in under nine minutes—more than a minute faster than the average block generation time. Some analysts predict such threats could materialize by 2029. Starlink Capital estimates that approximately 1.7 million Bitcoins are held in early P2PK addresses, including assets belonging to the creator Satoshi Nakamoto, which may face potential risks from future quantum attacks. The market is advised to monitor this development closely.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's security relies on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which classical computers cannot break within a reasonable timeframe. However, quantum computers could transform this one-way encryption mechanism into a reversible process, allowing private keys to be derived from public keys and funds to be stolen. Starlink Capital noted that this risk is not limited to long-term static Bitcoin addresses but may also arise during the transaction confirmation phase in the mempool. Public keys could be observed before a transaction is generated and confirmed, creating a brief window for quantum attacks and posing new security challenges to the entire market.
To address potential threats, developers have proposed several upgrade solutions. BIP 360 aims to eliminate permanently exposed public keys on the blockchain by adopting a Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR) structure, thereby reducing long-term exposure risks. Post-quantum signature schemes such as SPHINCS+ and SLH-DSA, which are based on hash functions, have also been proposed to circumvent vulnerabilities in ECDSA. Starlink Capital believes these technical upgrades can provide stronger protection for newly generated addresses, though additional solutions will be necessary to secure existing legacy address assets.
For high-risk existing assets, the community has proposed the Hourglass V2 solution, which limits the amount of Bitcoin spent per block to reduce the risk of concentrated sell-offs. Additionally, Tadge Dryja's Commit/Reveal scheme offers temporary protection for mempool transactions, ensuring that transactions can still be validated via pre-registered fingerprints even under quantum attack. Starlink Capital views these proposals—though still in discussion and testing phases—as evidence of the market's serious attention and proactive stance toward quantum threats.
Overall, Starlink Capital concludes that quantum threats are prompting the Bitcoin ecosystem to advance security measures ahead of time. Investors should continue to monitor the progress of technical upgrades, community governance strategies, and the management of high-risk assets to assess market volatility and the feasibility and security of investment strategies in the face of potential quantum attacks. The gradual implementation of such protective measures will contribute to the long-term stability and security of the Bitcoin network.
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