美联储鸽≠美股涨？市场开始担心衰退风暴了

智通财经网2022-12-10

有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

富川
2022-12-11
富川
👍
zh2021
2022-12-10
zh2021
[惊讶]
- zh2021:
  [惊讶]
康康的
2022-12-10
康康的
好
- Healthy Tiger:
  👌

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135427428?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-12-10 11:11","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","id":"1135427428","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美联储鸽≠美股涨？市场开始担心衰退风暴了","media":"智通财经网","content":"<div>\n<p>有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储鸽≠美股涨？市场开始担心衰退风暴了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储鸽≠美股涨？市场开始担心衰退风暴了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-10 11:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html","article_id":"1135427428","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135427428","pubTimestamp":1670641879,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Federal Reserve pigeon ≠ US stocks rose? The market is beginning to worry about the recession storm","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32ef64069b9e0123a7d6f73e0874cd2","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，对美联储将放慢加息步伐的乐观情绪曾推动美国股市上涨14%，但投资者的情绪现在已经变得阴沉起来，他们担心美联储果真放慢加息步伐，将标志着美国经济陷入低迷。已经有迹象表明，在美联储激进的紧缩政策下，美国经济增长正在放缓。美国服务业上月出现萎缩;尽管劳动力市场依然强劲，但也出现了一些疲软，最近首续请失业金人数增加。与此同时，通胀可能已经见顶，但仍高到足以让美联储保持警惕，增加了过度紧缩的风险。Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir表示:“我们将从‘坏数据就是好消息’转变成‘坏数据就是坏消息’，因为这是一个信号，表明经济正在以比大多数人预期的更快、更糟的速度走弱。”市场已经开始将一连串令人沮丧的经济消息视为坏消息，而不是将其视为美联储放宽政策前景带来的上涨理由。与此同时，美国通胀依然居高不下——美国11月PPI增速超预期就是明证。综合来看，这足以打压秋季以来的涨势。自股市在11月最后一天见顶以来，能源股领跌，这与2022年的前三次抛售不同，当时通胀加剧刺激了对原材料生产商的股价。对经济更为敏感的公司，如金融公司和消费品制造商，在12月份的表现较为滞后。这种转变在固定收益领域也很明显。在2022年早些时候，当通胀恐慌肆虐时，标普500指数从峰值下跌至少10%的三次情况中，债券都出现了暴跌。现在，债券已经开始恢复其作为经济衰退对冲的地位。周三，长期美国国债价格上涨，30年期美国国债收益率跌至3.5%以下，这是去年9月以来的最低水平。iShares 20年期以上美国国债ETF在过去三周上涨了9%。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示:“如果你是基于未来某个时候会降息的想法来购买股票，不幸的是，这意味着经济疲软也会在未来某个时候到来。所以你许愿的时候一定要小心。”最近几天，这一信息得到了华尔街大行高管的支持，华尔街大行的首席执行官们一致对美国经济增长和企业盈利前景持悲观态度。即使是倾向于吹捧自己销售的资产的卖方分析师，也一直在明显悲观地预测，2023年将出现下跌。媒体追踪的策略师的平均预测是，标普500指数明年将收于4009点，这是他们至少自1999年以来最悲观的预测。仓位和交易模式也显示出投资者正在远离风险资产。EPFR的数据显示，投资者以五个月来最快的速度撤出全球股市，在过去三周抛售了350亿美元，而一周前他们还囤积了230亿美元。波动幅度的信号也强化了近期涨势的短暂性，反映了如3月和8月涨势结束前的情况。11月曾刺激买盘的技术指标水平本周出现回落。标普500指数未能守住200日移动均线上方，随后跌穿为多头提供帮助的回撤水平。让事情进一步复杂化的是，根据高盛集团的一项指标，11月的股市上涨引发了自2020年3月以来金融状况最快的宽松，这让人们对美联储从明年开始转向宽松政策的能力产生了怀疑。在被通胀压力的强度和持久力所困后，美联储政策制定者似乎决心将加息到5%左右的峰值。这对于明年某个时候将出现收缩的经济来说是个坏消息。Ameriprise Financial股票研究主管Justin Burgin表示:“还有很多痛苦要经历。我们几乎没有看到这次历史上最快加息的滞后效应。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9929525583,"gmtCreate":1670712319142,"gmtModify":1676538419804,"author":{"id":"4090574021972690","authorId":"4090574021972690","name":"富川","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dbe7a9b8e7e06a2643ce22ccdff8f0ce","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4090574021972690","authorIdStr":"4090574021972690"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929525583","repostId":1135427428,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9929245153,"gmtCreate":1670687391372,"gmtModify":1676538417414,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929245153","repostId":1135427428,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105153154,"gmtCreate":1670687400440,"gmtModify":1670687413281,"authorId":3574387078391491,"author":{"id":3574387078391491,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorId":3574387078391491,"name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9929245153,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[惊讶]","text":"[惊讶]","html":"[惊讶]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9929674138,"gmtCreate":1670662981425,"gmtModify":1676538414306,"author":{"id":"3587038191942835","authorId":"3587038191942835","name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3587038191942835","authorIdStr":"3587038191942835"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929674138","repostId":1135427428,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105151013,"gmtCreate":1670664410596,"gmtModify":1670664423983,"authorId":3581815799197288,"author":{"id":3581815799197288,"idStr":"3581815799197288","authorId":3581815799197288,"name":"Healthy Tiger","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7e462745b42d680142c4dd8d4f907ba6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9929674138,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">👌</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">👌</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">👌</span>"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":51,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1135427428"}