On April 9, ATFX reported that optimism surrounding the Iran-US ceasefire agreement faded on Thursday as Tehran alleged violations of several terms, prompting a rebound in international oil prices after a sharp decline the previous day. News of the ceasefire reached on Wednesday had caused WTI crude to plummet over 14% and Brent crude to fall nearly 12%, with both benchmarks falling below the $100 per barrel mark. While Washington committed to a two-week suspension of airstrikes against Iran and initiated dialogue, market sentiment remained cautious due to lingering uncertainties over specific details.
Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz showed little change one day after the announcement of the ceasefire and the purported opening of the waterway. As of Wednesday, the strait remained largely blocked, with hundreds of vessels waiting for exit. Data compiled by Bloomberg indicated only three ships were observed leaving the region that day. Reports suggested two fully laden Chinese oil tankers were anchored near the Strait of Hormuz and were expected to be among the first to depart the Persian Gulf following the ceasefire. Shipowners are seeking clarity on whether safe passage through this critical channel is possible after the truce announced by both nations on Wednesday evening.
Washington's pledge to halt airstrikes for two weeks and engage Iran in talks had previously spurred a rally across asset markets. However, Israel's strikes in Lebanon and the continued effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threaten to undermine the ceasefire agreement. Market observers note that a return to pre-conflict conditions is currently difficult to achieve.
Several shipping agencies indicated on the 8th that vessel transit had resumed after the ceasefire was declared. However, shortly after Israeli attacks in Lebanon, Iran reportedly suspended oil tanker traffic through the strait. According to Iran's Press TV on the 8th, the Strait of Hormuz was completely closed, forcing some tankers to turn back and leaving a significant number of vessels stranded. The US had conditioned the two-week truce on Iran "fully, immediately, and safely" opening the strait. While Iran agreed to reopen it, they insisted that vessels must "coordinate with Iranian armed forces." The fundamental dispute over control of the strait, including who manages it and collects transit fees, remains unresolved despite the ceasefire.
The first round of US-Iran talks is scheduled for April 11 in Islamabad. The outcome of these negotiations, set to conclude around April 24, will directly influence the direction and volatility of oil prices. Analysts anticipate that international oil prices will likely maintain a pattern of high volatility during the negotiation period. Should the talks yield progress and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resume, oil prices could fluctuate around $90 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs' base case scenario projects a gradual increase in energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz starting this weekend, with Persian Gulf exports expected to gradually return to pre-war levels within a month. Under this scenario, Brent crude is forecast to average $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 in the fourth quarter.
Conversely, if negotiations reach a stalemate on core issues, or if ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon escalate, prompting Iran to withdraw from the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz could face a prolonged renewed blockade. Goldman Sachs warns that a one-month closure of the strait could push the average price of Brent crude above $100 per barrel through 2026. Other analyses suggest that in a scenario involving extended supply disruptions and production declines in some regions, Brent could reach $120 per barrel in Q3 and $115 in Q4.
The trajectory of oil prices following the steep decline hinges on the statements from US and Iranian representatives at the negotiating table in Islamabad on April 11 and whether transit through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizes. In the short term, prices are expected to test levels repeatedly within a high range—facing selling pressure near $100 due to profit-taking, while finding support around $90 as the geopolitical risk premium has not fully dissipated.
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