CGN POWER (01816) rose more than 4%, reaching an increase of 4.24% to HK$3.69 by the time of writing, with a turnover of HK$484 million. Recently, Liaoning Province established a pricing mechanism for nuclear power units set to take effect in 2026. Everbright Securities noted that this nuclear power pricing mechanism is expected to raise the comprehensive on-grid electricity price for nuclear units within Liaoning. Similar to Liaoning, annual long-term contract prices for 2026 in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Zhejiang have declined significantly year-on-year, putting pressure on nuclear power profitability. The institution believes that enhancing the profitability of nuclear power is crucial amid ongoing construction of new nuclear units. HSBC Research released a report stating that, given improved visibility on project returns for long-term assets and potential upside from a nationwide spread of contract-for-difference mechanisms, CGN POWER's valuation has room for further reassessment. The report highlighted that all operational nuclear power stations in Liaoning are currently operated by CGN POWER. With the implementation of the contract-for-difference mechanism, it is estimated that CGN POWER's profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 could be raised by 3% to 6% above the institution's base case, providing downside protection for nuclear power tariffs in a weak market and potentially enhancing the company's defensive value.
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