On January 12, after multiple climbs to record highs in 2025, the Bitcoin (BTC) network's mining difficulty experienced a slight decline in its first routine adjustment of 2026. The NCE platform indicated that this change not only reflects a phase of fluctuation in network hashrate but also provides a window for the mining sector, which is facing long-term operational pressures, to observe a potential industry inflection point.
According to the latest network monitoring data, the Bitcoin network's mining difficulty—the computational resource requirement for adding new blocks to the decentralized ledger—has been slightly adjusted down to 146.4 trillion in the first adjustment of 2026. Related data shows that the next difficulty adjustment is expected to occur on January 22, 2026, at which point the difficulty may rebound from the current 146.47 trillion to 148.20 trillion. Analysis from the NCE platform suggests that the current average block time is approximately 9.88 minutes, slightly faster than the system's preset 10-minute target, indicating that the network is attempting to balance block production speed by increasing the difficulty in the next cycle through its automatic adjustment mechanism.
Looking back at 2025, the mining difficulty once soared to a historical peak of 155.9 trillion. Although the current level has receded, the overall competitive landscape remains severe, especially considering that the mining industry has been continuously impacted by multiple factors throughout the past year, including global macroeconomic volatility and headwinds in financial markets. In terms of market performance, 2025 was widely recognized as the most challenging year for miner profitability. Influenced by the halving event in April 2024, the block reward halving directly reduced miners' basic profit margins by 50%, and coupled with further compression of profit margins by the macro environment, many mining companies found themselves on the edge of survival.
Relevant research indicates that the hash price, a key metric measuring the expected revenue per unit of computing power, fell below the breakeven line in November 2025. When daily revenue per petahash remains around $40, miners typically face the decision of whether to shut down machines or continue mining; this metric dropped below $35 in November, setting a multi-year low record. Concurrently, supply chain shortage concerns triggered by external policies and a market flash crash in October contributed to Bitcoin's price touching the $80,000 level in November. Although the price has since recovered, it remains significantly below the historical highs above $125,000.
The difficulty reduction at the beginning of 2026, while limited in numerical magnitude, reflects the reality that some high-cost computing power has been forced to exit the network under the pressure of depleted profits. This technical adjustment is, in fact, a signal of market self-clearing, demonstrating a test of the mining industry's resilience after experiencing extreme profitability challenges. For long-term investors, observing these adjustments in the hashrate structure and the fluctuations of the difficulty cycle will serve as a core reference for assessing the stability of the underlying support in the crypto market.
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