Non-ferrous metals stocks continued their upward trend. At the time of writing, CMOC (03993) rose 10.5% to HK$18.74; MMG (01208) increased 10.57% to HK$8.37; JIANGXI COPPER (00358) advanced 9.08% to HK$37.96; and ZIJIN MINING (02899) gained 7.93% to HK$38.12.
Market sentiment was influenced by a two-week temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, brokered by Pakistan, which triggered a sharp drop in international crude oil futures. Analysts previously suggested that if geopolitical tensions ease further and oil prices stabilize, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could reverse. This shift—from the current view of no cuts or even potential hikes to renewed anticipation of reductions—might signal a turning point for US stocks and bonds.
Last week, markets began correcting the previous "recession trade" sentiment, with prices for both precious and industrial metals showing significant recovery. As stagflation trading continues, precious metals may gradually demonstrate excess returns, while industrial commodities are expected to remain range-bound.
Disruptions from Middle East conflicts are affecting the production and transportation of raw materials like sulfur for electrolytic aluminum and copper, providing ongoing supply support. Meanwhile, domestic copper and aluminum inventories in China continue to decline, indicating that downstream buyers are gradually restocking amid price adjustments and seasonal demand. The actual supply-demand dynamics for each metal are likely to set a price floor during this period of fluctuation.
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