CICC has released a research report maintaining its adjusted net profit forecasts for POP MART (09992) at 13.7 billion yuan and 17.7 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, while introducing a 2027 forecast of 21.0 billion yuan. The current stock price implies adjusted P/E ratios of 19x, 15x, and 12x for 2025, 2026, and 2027. Following the company's two recent share buybacks and the valuation shift to 2026, the firm reiterates its Outperform industry rating and target price of HK$37, which corresponds to adjusted P/E multiples of 32x, 25x, and 21x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing a potential upside of 68% from the current price. CICC's main views are as follows:
Recent company developments show frequent highlights in new products, such as the sustained popularity growth of the PUCKY "Knock Knock" series. Concurrently, plush keychains like the "Full Throttle" family series and the "Starry Spark" star-person series are selling exceptionally well. The firm believes the excellent performance of recent new releases once again confirms the company's robust product R&D and innovation capabilities, which are underpinned by a mature innovation mechanism and a direct-to-customer operating system. CICC continues to be optimistic about the company's sustainable innovation capacity and the growth potential afforded by its platform-based business layout.
First, innovation in play patterns has propelled the PUCKY IP to break through its core audience once more. The new PUCKY "Knock Knock" series incorporates an electronic sound component within the plush keychain; when tapped, it produces a wooden fish sound effect. Designs correspond to themes like "Wealth" and "Wisdom," offering a tangible consumption experience and emotional value that aligns with young consumers' preferences and is well-suited for short-video sharing scenarios. As an early IP signed by POP MART in 2017, PUCKY has undergone nearly a decade of cultivation. The company's continuous design innovations in recent years have effectively revitalized this established IP. Previous series, such as PUCKY's "Bubbling Beans," also received positive market feedback, further validating the company's product innovation and IP operational strength.
Second, by focusing on material upgrades and play pattern innovations, the company supports the ongoing expansion of its consumer base and usage scenarios. In recent years, POP MART has consistently introduced minor innovations through material optimization and the addition of components—evolving from desktop figurines to vinyl and plush bag charms, and from light-up ornaments to sound-emitting dolls. These enhancements continuously improve product uniqueness and playability, thereby supporting audience and scenario diversification, effectively attracting new customers, and encouraging repeat purchases. The frequent breakout success of hot products in recent years is, in the firm's view, fundamentally driven by product innovation, which in turn provides the company's earnings growth with greater replicability and certainty.
Third, the underlying product DNA, direct sales system, and operational structure build a capacity for sustained innovation, supporting a positive outlook for the platform-based company's development prospects. CICC believes POP MART has established a comprehensive product R&D and innovation system: the company has deep upstream involvement in process and material development, directly addresses end-market demand and controls sales cadence downstream, while its matrix-style mid-office structure empowers the organization and revitalizes product innovation capabilities. The firm argues that the current market's excessive focus on sales volatility of individual IPs and products may overlook the growth certainty derived from the company's platform attributes and matrix-based layout. As the company's innovation capabilities have been consistently demonstrated in recent years, CICC reiterates its positive view on POP MART's platform advantages and leading market position.
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