又“高”了！太高了？机构对白酒板块态度有分歧……

上海证券报2021-06-07

近期，白酒股似有重振雄风之势。 Choice数据显示，截至今日收盘，5月以来贵州茅台上涨超10%，二线白酒股山西汾酒、舍得酒业、水井坊等股价更是频创历史新高。不过，对于白酒板块行情能否持续，头部私募间的分歧却愈发明显。有部分头部私募认为，随着下半年中秋节旺季的到来，高端白酒有望迎来量价齐升，值得关注。而部分百亿级私募却表示，目前白酒板块多数标的估值处于相对高位，后续或遭遇调整。白酒板块强势上涨...

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快乐玩美股
2021-06-07
快乐玩美股
我信你個鬼
林建荣
2021-06-07
林建荣
OK

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Too high? Institutions have different attitudes towards the liquor sector...","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2bbf28a9bfadff1445ea51ef3a9eb5","symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.9,"600559":0.9,"600702":0.9,"600779":0.9,"600809":0.9,"000858":0.9,"000995":0.9,"002646":0.9},"content_text":"近期，白酒股似有重振雄风之势。\nChoice数据显示，截至今日收盘，5月以来贵州茅台上涨超10%，二线白酒股山西汾酒、舍得酒业、水井坊等股价更是频创历史新高。不过，对于白酒板块行情能否持续，头部私募间的分歧却愈发明显。\n有部分头部私募认为，随着下半年中秋节旺季的到来，高端白酒有望迎来量价齐升，值得关注。而部分百亿级私募却表示，目前白酒板块多数标的估值处于相对高位，后续或遭遇调整。\n白酒板块强势上涨\n今日，白酒板块持续领涨。\nChoice数据显示，截至今日收盘，皇台酒业、老白干酒强势涨停，青青稞酒、山西汾酒、舍得酒业等二线白酒股也再创股价新高。另外，前两周（5.24-6.4）一线白酒股也涨势喜人，贵州茅台涨超10%，五粮液涨超6%。\n\n拉长时间来看，多只白酒股近两个月来的表现也颇有重振旗鼓的意味。\n数据显示，舍得酒业近60个交易日涨幅超过300%，水井坊、酒鬼酒、金徽酒等标的同期涨幅也均超过100%。\n\n资金+基本面驱动\n沪上一位业内人士直言，白酒板块上涨的原因之一，是各路资金的持续涌入。\nChoice数据显示，截至6月7日，在5月以来的沪港通成交活跃股榜单中，贵州茅台以20次的上榜次数位居第一，期间北向资金净买入额超过58亿元，五粮液同期的净买入额也超过34亿元。\n\n除了增量资金的驱动，业内人士分析称，基本面持续向好也是白酒板块上涨的重要原因。\n“受益于经济复苏、消费升级以及通胀预期，白酒的中长期景气度依旧向上，同时有两方面短期的催化因素使得近期白酒板块表现亮眼，一是人民币升值预期，刺激大量外资加大对A股的配置比例，而对于外资来说，消费板块依旧是最为确定的投资方向；二是下半年中秋旺季，高端和次高端白酒有望迎来量价齐升的状态，业绩表现大概率较为亮眼。”一位聚焦消费行业的私募表示。\n头部私募分歧显著\n值得注意的是，虽然白酒板块短期再度成为市场主角之一，但头部私募却分歧渐大。\n“白酒股业绩不会特别差，但是从成长性来看其估值不算特别有吸引力，所以我更倾向于近期的行情是短期现象，目前我投资更偏谨慎一些。”一位私募基金经理直言。\n同犇投资总经理兼投资总监童驯也提示，受益于经济复苏、消费升级以及通胀预期，白酒的基本面依然比较良性，其风险则在于白酒股的估值并不低，而且未来全球流动性的收紧对股市估值都会有些影响，也会影响白酒股的表现。\n沪上一家专注在消费赛道的私募还透露，目前已经将白酒板块的持仓比降至三成。\n不过，世诚投资总经理陈家琳却表示，包括白酒在内的龙头股估值水平并不算低，但这并不是一个风险因素。反而这类股票的估值中枢大概率出现趋势性的上移，这个趋势来自于市场愿意为质量付出更多的溢价、利率的中长期下行、机构投资者占比的不断提升，以及单个管理人管理规模的扩大等情况。“后续我们继续看好包括白酒在内的大消费龙头股的表现。”\n沪上一家新晋百亿级私募人士也坦言，公司看好下半年中秋节、国庆节“双节”旺季即将到来，高端白酒量价齐升驱动的上市公司亮眼业绩表现。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":114184601,"gmtCreate":1623057691903,"gmtModify":1704195182490,"author":{"id":"3574841454707089","authorId":"3574841454707089","name":"快乐玩美股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193d55dc3ae5d7357bea35e08f9288e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"我信你個鬼","listText":"我信你個鬼","text":"我信你個鬼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114184601","repostId":1135766345,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":114185105,"gmtCreate":1623057633907,"gmtModify":1704195177909,"author":{"id":"3565400297091055","authorId":"3565400297091055","name":"林建荣","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/de550bf8433dde493d195493d56f644f","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114185105","repostId":1135766345,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1135766345"}