According to Woofun AI, RBC (RY.US) has released a high-profile acquisition hypothesis establishing a potential framework for SpaceX (SPCX.US) to acquire Tesla Motors (TSLA.US). Although the bank emphasized it is not aware of any actual acquisition transaction currently in progress, this theoretical model has sparked widespread market discussion about the value re-rating of a merger between the two giants.
Woofun AI compiled data showing that the transaction details have undergone significant evolution. Under the hypothetical all-stock exchange plan, SpaceX (SPCX.US) proposes to acquire Tesla Motors (TSLA.US) at $480 per share, bringing the combined total valuation to $3.74 trillion. Compared to analyst Tom Narayan's July forecast of $3.31 trillion with Tesla Motors (TSLA.US) shareholders holding 54%, the latest model shows Tesla Motors (TSLA.US) shareholders' stake declining to 48%, with SpaceX (SPCX.US) shareholders holding 52%. This means SpaceX (SPCX.US) investors gain approximately $422 billion in additional value, while Tesla Motors (TSLA.US) shareholders' stake is worth approximately $1.8 trillion, corresponding to a premium of about 30%.
RBC (RY.US) believes that combining Tesla Motors' (TSLA.US) robotics manufacturing business with SpaceX's (SPCX.US) AI infrastructure, including the Terafab semiconductor plan, could generate synergies.
Market reaction and risks coexist. In September, when Musk was asked why the two companies remain independently operated, he responded that it was a "good question" and hinted that given the increasingly close collaboration, he might take certain actions. Future Fund partner Gary Black warned that the acquisition premium paid in SpaceX (SPCX.US) stock could be eroded by arbitrage activity, as investors could evaluate the combined value using Tesla Motors' (TSLA.US) lower valuation multiples, and arbitrage traders might consume the premium before the deal closes.
Barclays (BCS.US) analyst Dan Levy stated that a related announcement could potentially be released before Tesla Motors' (TSLA.US) shareholder meeting on December 3. Polymarket data shows an 18% probability of a formal announcement before December 31, rising to 64% by the end of 2027, with trading volume on that market exceeding $1.4 million.
Following this news, Tesla Motors (TSLA.US) shares rose more than 3% to $367, while SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares climbed more than 2% to $150.
Key near-term catalysts are approaching, with SpaceX (SPCX.US) scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday, October 20, and Tesla Motors (TSLA.US) set to report earnings on Wednesday, October 21. The disclosure of these two earnings reports will serve as a critical window to validate the merger hypothesis and market expectations, and investors need to closely monitor the impact of financial data on valuation models.
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