Citigroup has released a research report indicating that ABC (01288) saw a 13% year-on-year increase in pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) for the first quarter, a significant improvement compared to the 5.3% decline in the fourth quarter of last year. This growth was driven by a recovery in net interest margins, strong trading gains, steady growth in fee income, and an improved cost-to-income ratio (CIR). Post-tax net profit for the quarter rose 4.5% year-on-year to RMB 75.2 billion, though the growth rate was moderate due to higher credit costs. Citigroup has assigned an H-share "Buy" rating to ABC with a target price of HK$6.94. The bank expects the market to react positively to ABC's strong first-quarter performance. However, looking ahead to the second round of capital replenishment for major banks, Citigroup notes that current valuations of Chinese banks are significantly higher than during the first round of capital replenishment announced in March last year. As a result, ABC is anticipated to carry out capital replenishment at a much lower premium than in the previous round. The report estimates that this capital replenishment could lead to an earnings per share dilution of approximately 7% to 8%.
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