Midterm Defeat Does Not Alter Tariff Policy, Widening Rift Between White House and Business Community

Deep News11-11 17:40

Following the U.S. midterm elections, the White House has reaffirmed its commitment to continuing Trump's tariff policy. However, the latest polling indicates that 62% of Americans support repealing the relevant tariffs, and persistently elevated prices are intensifying the political pressure on the White House.

After the Republican Party suffered a significant defeat in the midterm elections, the Trump administration still has no intention of abandoning its core trade policy. Senior White House officials stated that tariffs will continue to be used to drive manufacturing back to the United States and reshape supply chains, even as the rising cost of living has become a primary concern for American voters. On Tuesday local time, Jim Goyer, Director of the White House Office of Public Liaison, said at the B20 Business Summit in Washington that the Trump administration will continue to advance its existing trade agenda and plans to maintain this policy direction for the remainder of the president's term. At the same event, however, Gary Cohn, chief economic adviser during Trump's first term, offered a different view. He argued that import tariffs effectively increase the burden on American consumers, as businesses pass on part of the costs to households, causing prices to rise.

White House Insists on Tariff Policy as Polls Show Rising Public Opposition

The Trump administration views tariffs as an important tool for protecting American manufacturing, strengthening supply chain security, and safeguarding national security. Goyer stated that the government's trade policy is still in its implementation phase and will continue at its current pace. This position indicates that the White House is not preparing to make a comprehensive adjustment to its tariff policy as a result of the midterm election outcome. However, voters' concerns about the cost of living are creating increasingly evident political pressure. A CNBC voter survey showed that about two-thirds of respondents believe Trump's policies have driven inflation higher; nearly 90% said the cost of living was an important or decisive factor in their vote. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on November 10 further showed that 62% of American adults support repealing the import tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, while only 21% approve of the president's handling of the cost of living issue. The survey, which concluded on November 9, interviewed 1,705 American adults and has a margin of error of about 2 percentage points. With Democrats winning control of both chambers of Congress, tariff policy is expected to become one of the key economic issues reviewed by the new Congress.

October Inflation Again Exceeds Expectations, Tariff Cost Pass-Through Sparks Controversy

As the White House continues to push forward with its tariff policy, the latest U.S. inflation data once again exceeded market expectations. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.3%; core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%, also exceeding expectations. The U.S. CPI for September rose 3.7% year-on-year, significantly above the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target of 2%. Due to the impact of the October 2025 federal government shutdown on price data collection, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release year-on-year CPI data for October. Current U.S. inflation pressure does not stem entirely from tariffs. The war with Iran has driven energy prices higher, housing and healthcare service costs remain elevated, and investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure has also increased demand for certain goods. However, the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has been supported by some empirical research. A study by the New York Fed estimated that of the costs resulting from certain tariff increases since 2025, about 26% were ultimately passed through to consumer prices, with some effects potentially taking 9 to 12 months to fully materialize. The study estimated based on specific product categories and tariff adjustments, and does not mean that 26% of overall U.S. inflation is caused by tariffs. Cohn pointed out at the summit that the Trump administration emphasizes that tariffs can increase fiscal revenue, but this calculation ignores the additional costs borne by consumers. He argued that although tariff revenue flows into government coffers, higher prices for imported goods may ultimately still affect the purchasing power of American working families.

Supply Chain Restructuring Accelerates, Democratic Efforts to Repeal Tariffs Still Face Obstacles

For American businesses, uncertainty in trade policy has already prompted changes in supply chain arrangements. Carol Tomé, CEO of United Parcel Service (UPS), said that a growing number of customers are adjusting their production and procurement arrangements, shifting parts of their supply chains to regions closer to major markets. This trend of supply chain regionalization means that even if tariff policy is adjusted in the future, companies may not quickly revert to their previous global procurement models. However, the business community's attitudes toward tariffs are not uniform. Jim Fitterling, executive chairman of Dow Inc., acknowledged that tariffs may push up prices for some products but argued that the measures remain necessary to address unfair competition and protect American manufacturing. On the political front, the newly Democrat-controlled Congress plans to push for the repeal of some tariffs after taking office in January, with measures targeting Canadian goods likely to be a priority for discussion. However, Trump still holds presidential veto power and certain executive authority over trade policy. Even if Democrats manage to pass relevant legislation, they may not be able to force the White House to fully repeal tariffs. Cohn believes there is still limited room for cooperation between the two sides, such as retaining measures targeting certain unfair trade practices while removing some tariffs that increase the burden on American consumers. At present, the Trump administration's policy focus remains manufacturing protection and supply chain security, while Democrats are seeking to make lowering the cost of living the centerpiece of their next-phase economic agenda. As U.S. inflation continues to run above target, tariff policy will continue to face the dual test of economic effectiveness and political acceptability.

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