Ahead of Friday's opening bell, US stock futures are edging upward across the board. As of the latest update, Dow futures are up 0.04%, S&P 500 futures have gained 0.16%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.36%.
Overseas markets are showing a softer tone, with Germany's DAX down 0.93%, the UK's FTSE 100 off 0.91%, France's CAC 40 sliding 0.95%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 falling 0.97%. Meanwhile, oil prices are ticking lower, with WTI crude down 0.70% at $101.20 per barrel and Brent crude slipping 1.61% to $103.13 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs sees "earnings bubble" concerns as overblown, calling for an 8700 S&P 500 target next year.
Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) argue that the impressive earnings performance of US corporations, underpinned by a resilient economic outlook and the artificial intelligence boom, means worries about an "earnings bubble" are exaggerated. Data shows that S&P 500 constituent companies saw profits surge roughly 30% in each of the past two quarters, ranking among the strongest showings on record. Full-year earnings expectations have also climbed to their highest level since the post-COVID rebound in 2021. While this pace of growth suggests companies may be "over-earning" amid a surge in AI investment, the Goldman team led by Ben Snider says they expect profit growth to moderate in the coming years rather than collapse entirely. "Market pricing reflects expectations for continued earnings growth, but also a reasonable degree of skepticism about the sustainability of current profitability," Snider wrote in a note. Goldman predicts corporate earnings will grow 11% next year, potentially pushing the S&P 500 up 14% to around 8700 points over the next twelve months.
Triple witching arrives: a potential liquidity challenge for markets today.
Wall Street is bracing for possible volatility this evening as quarterly "triple witching" takes place—a convergence where stock index futures, index options, and individual stock options all expire simultaneously. According to Bluekurtic Market Insights, the historical performance of this event has been notoriously troublesome. Data tracking back to 2000 reveals a fairly consistent trend: since 2012, the S&P 500 has closed lower on 12 of 14 triple-witching days. The only exceptions occurred in 2017 and 2025, when the index managed marginal gains of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. With over $2 trillion in notional delta of options expiring at once, market observers warn this quarterly liquidity event could spark downward volatility. The upcoming expiry lands in what is historically one of the most challenging months for equities. Although the S&P 500 has so far weathered these seasonal headwinds with an unusually calm 0.3% gain, Friday's massive expiration could serve as the ultimate test for the month's trajectory.
Bond market selloff finds a silver lining: 5% yields lure a flood of capital.
Despite the anxiety hanging over the world's largest bond market, some investors are spotting an appealing reason to buy—yield. A potential silver lining is the opportunity, rarely seen since the global financial crisis, to buy now and lock in annualized returns of around 5% for the next decade or longer. A growing number of money managers find this chance hard to resist. According to Morningstar data, $625 billion has flowed net into US bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds through the end of August this year, the highest level for that period since tracking began in 2010. Asset managers including Pacific Investment Management Company LLC and The Vanguard Group Inc expect this inflow pace to accelerate as investors rebalance portfolios away from stocks and toward fixed income.
"New Bond King" Gundlach warns: the next recession could trigger a US debt crisis, stripping Treasuries of safe-haven status.
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital LP, warns that the next US economic downturn could ignite a debt crisis, driving long-end Treasury yields sharply higher—breaking the decades-old notion that bonds always serve as a safe haven during turbulent times. Such a scenario might force the Federal Reserve and Treasury to adopt unconventional policies, such as restarting "Operation Twist" to buy long-term bonds or even pursuing debt restructuring. He said he is focusing on low-duration assets to shield DoubleLine's funds from further upward pressure on rates. "Once the economy tips into recession, the market will focus intensely on the fiscal situation. The budget deficit could easily reach 12% of GDP. That would generate roughly $3 trillion in annual interest payments—a burden that simply cannot be sustained," he said.
Oil's next stop stumps even JPMorgan: the endgame of conflict is uncertain, and assumptions of a "temporary supply disruption" are being reset.
JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) notes that Middle East energy risk is expanding from restricted strait passage to damage of alternative transport routes themselves, making the premise of a "temporary conflict disruption with quick supply recovery" increasingly hard to maintain. In a report, the bank's analysts said that several economic red lines previously assumed the US government would be reluctant to cross—including oil prices above $100 per barrel, gasoline prices near $5 a gallon, and surging Treasury yields—have already appeared, making the exit strategy more uncertain. While global inventory buffers have dwindled during the conflict, analysts say there is still enough cushion to limit further upside in crude prices. However, the bank estimates that if Middle East supply flows hold at current levels, oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 and December could be $7 and $8 higher, respectively, than its current forecasts of around $80 and $78 per barrel.
Nvidia's growth far from over? Huang predicts chip sales to double in the coming year.
Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang expects the company's chip sales to double over the next year as AI technology accelerates its penetration across industries, signaling sustained robust demand for global AI infrastructure. Despite growing market concerns over the potential risks of rapid AI development, Huang remains optimistic about the industry's prospects. Nvidia's recent earnings guidance also reflects strong AI demand. Last month, the company projected sales growth of roughly 70% year-over-year for the next fiscal year. Nvidia also indicated that revenue could even double if it secures enough chip supply to meet fast-growing market demand.
SpaceX's AI division eyes "bankruptcy data": plans to acquire customer and operational info from distressed startups to boost Grok model training.
According to sources familiar with the matter, SpaceX (SPCX.US) has internally discussed purchasing customer and operational data from startups that are struggling or have already failed, hoping to obtain higher-quality data at relatively low cost to improve the performance of its AI models. While SpaceXAI is exploring additional external data sources, Musk's vast business empire itself remains an important data source for Grok, including information generated by SpaceX employees. This stance suggests SpaceXAI's future data strategy may adopt a dual "internal + external" model: continuing to leverage data from Musk-owned enterprises and platforms like SpaceX and X, while also expanding the breadth and specialization of training data through purchased external datasets.
Lucid CEO: restructuring advisor partnership concludes, roadmap to profitability emerges.
Lucid Group Inc (NASDAQ: LCID) CEO Marc Napoli said the electric vehicle maker has completed its engagement with restructuring advisor AlixPartners LLP, signaling a clearer path toward turning around its operations. The company had brought in AlixPartners to help achieve its $1.4 billion cash savings target this year. Napoli has been conducting an operational review to optimize the business, cut costs, and ensure the smooth launch of its new midsize vehicle. Having taken the helm at Lucid earlier this year, Napoli has already implemented sweeping cost reductions, leadership changes, and layoffs to contend with weak US consumer demand.
Upcoming economic data: US industrial production for August is due at 21:15 Beijing time.
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