On September 22, gold faced downward pressure near the 4383 level during the Asian session. In the U.S. session, prices retreated to around 4322 following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Although a modest rebound occurred afterward, the recovery was limited, and the daily chart ultimately closed with a bearish candle.
From a daily chart perspective, the recent uptick in gold appears to be driven by short-term market sentiment rather than a fundamental shift, leaving the medium-term bearish outlook intact. Technically, yesterday's trading unfolded as expected within the moving average band, reflecting a calmer market mood. If the Fed's hawkish stance gains further traction, gold could easily return to its medium-term weakening trajectory.
On the upside, gold faces resistance at the 20-day moving average, which has now slipped to 4390. On the downside, support lies at the 5-day and 10-day moving averages near 4330. A break below these levels today could accelerate the shift back into a bearish trend, with the next downside target in the 4250-4200 zone.
Turning to the hourly chart, gold's primary path was downward yesterday, with more losing than gaining moves. This suggests that bullish momentum from last Thursday and Friday has largely faded. The hawkish Fed commentary has forced gold to remain weak, and with several Fed speakers scheduled this week, further downward pressure is likely. Therefore, the near-term bias stays tilted toward the downside.
Intraday resistance is initially seen at 4365-4370, with stronger resistance at 4385-4390. Support is first tested at the hourly range lower boundary of 4335-4330. Some support may emerge here, but if Fed speakers maintain their hawkish tone, a breakdown is highly possible. Losing 4330 could trigger a renewed bearish move, with targets at 4300 and 4260-4250.
In summary, gold is expected to remain in a consolidation phase within the moving average band, spanning 4390-4330. However, given the fundamental backdrop and the potential for further U.S. dollar strength, the medium-term outlook still favors a return to a weak, downward-moving trend.
For today's trading, key resistance levels to watch are 4366-4370 and 4385-4390, while support lies at 4330 and 4300. Special attention should be paid to the 4330 level and its potential to hold or break.
Operational strategy: First, consider short positions on a rebound to 4360-4365, with a stop loss above 4370. Target a reduction of positions in the 4335-4330 zone, with further reductions near 4300. Retain some positions for potential declines toward 4260-4250 and 4200. Second, if prices unexpectedly rise above 4370, look for a short opportunity near the 4390 resistance level. Additionally, if the price breaks below 4330, adjust short entry points lower accordingly. Adjustments will be made based on live market conditions as these scenarios develop.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should operate at their own risk.
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