On the evening of May 11, international gold and silver prices experienced a sudden sharp upward movement. As of 21:16, spot silver reached $85 per ounce, marking the first time since March 13, with an intraday gain of 6%. Spot gold returned above $4,730 and turned positive, rising 0.3% on the day.
In the domestic commodity futures market, Shanghai silver also saw a significant increase, rising 3.6%.
On the news front, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, pushing back its previous expectations from September and December of this year to December 2026 and March 2027. The bank noted that persistently high energy prices are likely to keep inflation elevated. Given that the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has lasted for ten weeks, has driven up energy prices and kept policymakers vigilant about inflation risks, several global brokerages have lowered their expectations for U.S. rate cuts in 2026. Market views are currently divided, with some institutions anticipating modest easing while others expect no rate cuts at all.
Kaiyuan Securities believes that a Fed rate cut in 2026 is not entirely impossible. The impact of oil price shocks on economic growth is lagged, and even if short-term inflation rises, the Fed may choose to wait and see rather than immediately raising rates. According to the latest forecast from Bank of America, the Fed will delay rate cuts until the second half of 2027, primarily due to high inflation levels and strong employment growth. Previously, the institution had expected the Fed to cut rates once in September and once in October this year.
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