Abstract
Advance Auto Parts will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on February 13, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes the latest market forecasts for revenue, gross margin, net profit margin, and adjusted EPS, along with recent analyst sentiment and business segment trends.
Market Forecast
Consensus for the current quarter indicates that Advance Auto Parts’ revenue is projected at $1.95 billion, with an adjusted EPS estimate of $0.43 and EBIT forecast of $0.06 billion; the year-over-year revenue growth embedded in this forecast is 1.14%, while EPS is projected to increase by 136.05%. Forecasts currently imply a moderate recovery in profitability from a weak base, though gross margin and net margin forecasts are not explicitly provided and therefore are omitted. Management’s revenue guide points to stable demand in core categories, with a measured focus on pricing consistency and inventory normalization; batteries and maintenance categories remain the operational centerpiece. The most promising segment is parts and batteries, projected to be the largest revenue contributor with an estimated segment revenue base above $1.32 billion last quarter and a positive year-over-year trajectory cited by the company.
Last Quarter Review
Advance Auto Parts’ previous quarter delivered revenue of $2.04 billion, a gross profit margin of 43.47%, a GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of $0.01 million, a net margin of -0.05%, and adjusted EPS of $0.92, with revenue down 5.21% year over year and adjusted EPS up 24.00% year over year. Inventory and mix actions supported the gross margin resilience despite volume pressure, while discipline on promotions aided profitability stabilization. The main business mix was led by parts and batteries at $1.32 billion revenue, followed by accessories and chemicals at $0.41 billion and engine maintenance at $0.29 billion; parts and batteries remained the key anchor for top-line and margin contribution, with management highlighting operational improvements and targeted store-level execution.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Core Parts and Batteries
The parts and batteries category remains the backbone of sales and gross profit performance in the current period. The category’s structural demand is sustained by vehicle age tailwinds and consistent replacement cycles, which tend to hold up even during softer consumer spending environments. With last quarter’s revenue contribution at $1.32 billion, execution around inventory availability and “good-better-best” assortment should be central to both unit throughput and margin capture this quarter. Price normalization relative to the prior year’s promotional baseline supports a more balanced sell-through, helping gross margin quality with fewer markdowns. A return to historical service levels at hubs and stores, emphasized in operations updates, would support professional (commercial) customer fill rates, preserving share in high-frequency SKUs and offsetting potential consumer discretionary softness.
Accessories, Chemicals, and Engine Maintenance
Accessories and chemicals, along with engine maintenance, collectively provide complementary demand that is sensitive to miles driven and seasonal effects. With the winter season affecting battery and engine-related replacements, the company’s fiscal fourth quarter can see a mix benefit from higher-value maintenance items if supply is properly aligned. The company’s merchandising signals indicate measured promotion strategies, which can protect gross margin even if unit comps remain mixed. The strategy to reduce SKU complexity and refocus on higher-turn categories should enhance inventory productivity and cash conversion cycles. Margin execution in these categories may lag parts and batteries due to typically lower ticket sizes and higher promotional elasticity, but a disciplined pricing framework and better availability should cushion the downside.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Three factors are likely to exert the greatest influence on the stock’s reaction to the print and commentary. The first is the trajectory of gross margin versus the 43.47% baseline from last quarter; even small sequential improvements could have outsized EPS effects given the low EBIT margin base of the business. The second is evidence of traffic and ticket stabilization across both DIY and professional channels; a balanced mix with higher-frequency professional orders can stabilize revenue and operating leverage. The third is guidance discipline—investors will scrutinize whether management’s EPS and EBIT frameworks signal continued margin repair and cost containment; a step up from the $0.06 billion EBIT forecast would raise confidence in the multiquarter turnaround, while any stumble in service levels or pricing commentary could revive concerns about competitive positioning and elasticity.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent institutional commentaries, the balance of views on Advance Auto Parts leans cautious, with a greater share of neutral-to-bearish stances than outright bullish positions. The majority perspective emphasizes that while a stabilization path is forming—supported by inventory normalization, category strength in batteries, and modest revenue growth—the earnings repair remains vulnerable to execution and channel-mix risks. Analysts highlight that the forecasted adjusted EPS of $0.43 and EBIT of $0.06 billion indicate progress from a depressed base but leave limited margin for error if gross margin fails to trend above the prior quarter’s 43.47% or if revenue undershoots the $1.95 billion estimate. Institutions with cautious views point to intense competition in the sector, normalization of pandemic-era pricing benefits, and operating cost inflation as constraints on near-term margin expansion. The dominant theme is that upside requires tangible evidence of service-level gains and sustained pricing discipline; absent that, the stock’s reaction may be capped despite better headline EPS numbers.
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