Abstract
ONEOK Inc will report first-quarter results on April 28, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to higher revenue and earnings as the company leans on fee-based operations and steady commodity-linked contributions; investors will watch volume trends, margin mix, and capital return signals for confirmation.
Market Forecast
The market anticipates that ONEOK Inc will deliver approximately 8.57 billion US dollars in revenue for the current quarter, implying 11.29% year-over-year growth, alongside estimated adjusted EPS of 1.32, up 5.48% year over year; current-quarter EBIT is projected at 1.47 billion US dollars, up 7.64% year over year. Forecasts for gross margin, net income, and net margin are not broadly quantified by the Street, though the prevailing view expects margins to remain resilient on a stable fee-and-tariff mix; adjusted EPS growth is expected to track revenue growth but at a slower pace given the margin mix and higher interest expense environment.
The main revenue stream, product sales, provided 7.82 billion US dollars last quarter, with services and other contributing 1.24 billion US dollars; the outlook centers on throughput stability and cost discipline to protect margins across both categories. The most promising stream is services and other, where revenue of 1.24 billion US dollars last quarter is expected to align with consolidated growth assumptions near 11% year over year as fee-driven activities and tariff escalators support incremental expansion.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, ONEOK Inc generated 9.07 billion US dollars of revenue, a gross profit margin of 29.44%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 0.98 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 10.78%, and adjusted EPS of 1.55, which declined 1.27% year over year. Operating performance benefitted from disciplined cost controls and a constructive sales mix, supporting double-digit net margin despite earnings per share trending modestly lower year over year. By line of business, product sales contributed 7.82 billion US dollars and services and other delivered 1.24 billion US dollars, with product sales remaining the dominant revenue driver in the quarter.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main revenue engine: product sales
Product sales remain the largest contributor to quarterly revenue, supplying 7.82 billion US dollars last quarter and anchoring consolidated topline expectations this quarter. The near-term trajectory depends on volumes and realized spreads within the company’s product suite, but management’s historical focus on balancing commodity-linked cash flows with fee-based earnings is designed to steady consolidated outcomes. Consensus expects total revenue of 8.57 billion US dollars this quarter, up 11.29% year over year, and the scale of product sales implies that any positive variance in throughput or realized spreads could translate into a measurable upside to the consolidated growth rate. Margin quality in product sales will be scrutinized: a favorable product mix and lower unit logistics costs would support gross margin stability, while any incremental hedging discipline helps reduce volatility in realized margins quarter to quarter. Given the category’s weight, investors will watch for commentary on volume cadence and the sustainability of price- and spread-realizations to gauge whether the positive revenue delta can flow through to EBIT and EPS.
Most promising category: services and other
Services and other delivered 1.24 billion US dollars last quarter and is viewed as the steadier, fee-oriented counterweight to the variability in product sales. While sell-side models do not quantify a standalone growth rate for this category, consensus framing around consolidated revenue growth suggests this stream can grow in line with or modestly above the 11% year-over-year pace this quarter as tariff escalators, contract renewals, and incremental capacity utilization take hold. The investment case for this category in the near term hinges on a favorable mix of long-term contracts, inflation-linked adjustments where applicable, and operating leverage from higher throughput across existing infrastructure. If services revenue grows in line with the consolidated view, it can provide an incremental lift to gross profit due to its typically more predictable margin characteristics, and that could underpin small gains in EBIT beyond the topline growth. Management commentary around contracted volumes, recent pricing resets, and utilization will be important to assess how much of the consolidated uplift is fee-driven and how durable that uplift may be across subsequent quarters.
Key stock-price drivers this quarter
Three factors appear most likely to move the shares around this print: delivery on revenue and EPS relative to consensus, the margin mix between product sales and services, and updates on capital allocation cadence. Earnings sensitivity around the 8.57 billion US dollars revenue and 1.32 EPS markers is elevated; modest beats or misses could drive outsized share reactions given recent upgrades and target increases from multiple institutions. Margin quality will be a central talking point: maintaining a gross margin profile comparable to last quarter’s 29.44% while showing stable to improving conversion into EBIT (forecast +7.64% year over year) would be viewed constructively; conversely, any signs of margin compression due to a less favorable mix or higher operating costs could cap the EPS trajectory even if revenue trends are solid. Finally, investors are paying close attention to capital returns and balance-sheet messaging—recent commentary in the market emphasizes a multiyear program to return a substantial portion of operating cash flow through dividends and buybacks; clarity on pace and priorities can influence valuation multiples and the durability of a premium view.
Analyst Opinions
The majority view leans bullish in the latest three months of published opinions, with multiple Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings and price targets clustered in the low-to-high 90s and extending to 108 US dollars. Notable recent updates include a Buy from UBS with a 108 US dollars price target, an Overweight from Wells Fargo lifting its target to 100 US dollars from 81 US dollars, and a Buy from Jefferies that raised its target to 100 US dollars after a prior increase to 98 US dollars. Scotiabank maintained a Sector Outperform rating, nudging its target to 92 US dollars, reinforcing a constructive skew in published research during the period. The common thread across these positive calls centers on growing confidence in near-term cash generation, the visibility of fee-based earnings within the services stream, and clearer capital return frameworks that strengthen the investment case into the print.
From a forecasting standpoint, the bullish camp highlights that consensus anticipates 8.57 billion US dollars in revenue and 1.32 in adjusted EPS, both up year over year, with EBIT expected to increase 7.64%. Analysts in this group argue that the company’s mix of fee-linked and commodity-linked activities provides a pragmatic path to compound earnings while containing volatility, especially as the services and other category continues to scale with contract resets and throughput growth. They also emphasize capital deployment discipline, pointing to expectations that a sizeable share of operating cash flow will be directed to dividends and opportunistic buybacks over a multiyear horizon, which can sustain investor interest and support valuation.
The bullish perspective also anticipates that margin delivery will be a focal point this quarter: replicating last quarter’s 29.44% gross margin and maintaining a double-digit net margin would substantiate the projected 5.48% year-over-year rise in EPS. A stronger showing in services revenue, even modestly above consolidated growth, could marginally improve operating leverage and help narrow the gap between revenue growth and EPS growth. With several institutions having recently raised targets into a 92–108 US dollars range, this quarter’s print is framed as a validation checkpoint for the company’s volume trajectory, stable margin structure, and capital-return cadence—all cited as key underpinnings for the positive stance.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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