In May 2026, the heavy-duty truck market in China achieved its third consecutive month of year-on-year growth, even as the traditional peak season began to wane.
Preliminary data indicates that wholesale sales for the month, encompassing both domestic and export markets as well as new energy vehicles, reached around 103,000 units.
This figure represents a 12% decline from April 2026 but a significant 16% increase compared to the approximately 89,000 units sold in May of the previous year.
While still positive, this year-on-year growth rate moderated compared to the 25% and 33% increases seen in March and April, respectively.
Notably, the May 2026 sales volume marks a five-year high for the month.
Cumulative sales for the first five months of the year reached roughly 538,000 units, reflecting a 22% increase from the same period in 2025.
The month-on-month decline in wholesale sales was primarily driven by a sharp drop in natural gas vehicle sales and major manufacturers' efforts to reduce inventory levels.
The factors behind the strong year-on-year growth were partly similar to those in March and April, involving the traditional seasonal demand peak coupled with accelerated replacement of older, China V emission standard trucks.
A new development, however, is the shifting market share between natural gas-powered and electric heavy-duty trucks.
The traditional sales peak for domestic heavy-duty trucks typically runs from March to mid-May, a period when freight transport is active and logistics operators often invest in newer, more efficient, and more reliable vehicles.
A defining feature of the 2026 market has been the accelerated phase-out of China V diesel trucks, spurred by competition from both natural gas and electric alternatives, which has fueled robust demand for new vehicle purchases.
It is important to highlight that while fuel oil prices remained high in May, natural gas prices also surged.
LNG prices rose rapidly from late April, reaching approximately 6.3 to 6.6 yuan per kilogram.
This dramatic narrowing of the price gap between oil and gas, even leading to a situation where gas was more expensive than diesel in some regions, effectively erased the economic advantage of LNG-powered trucks in many areas.
This development significantly impacted the natural gas vehicle market in May and contributed to the overall decline in domestic heavy truck sales for the month.
Concurrently, it led to a further increase in the market share of electric heavy-duty trucks, while the proportion of sales attributed to natural gas models declined noticeably.
Furthermore, China's heavy truck exports faced some pressure in April and May due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Export volumes fell by about 17% in April compared to March and experienced another slight sequential decline in May.
On a positive note, exports still showed strong year-on-year growth, with May figures estimated to be up approximately 28% compared to the same month last year.
Sharp Decline for Natural Gas Trucks, Surge for Electric Models
While the overall heavy-duty truck market grew for a third straight month in May 2026, the performance of key segments like natural gas and new energy trucks varied dramatically.
Based on compulsory traffic insurance registration data, domestic terminal sales in May are estimated to have increased nearly 20% year-on-year but fell by close to 20% compared to April.
Within this, the natural gas truck segment saw its sales roughly halve month-on-month.
Natural gas truck sales had been strong, with terminal sales exceeding 30,000 units in both March and April, marking the second and third highest monthly figures on record.
However, starting from late April 2026, LNG prices began a rapid ascent, with refueling prices in northern regions climbing to 6.3-6.6 yuan/kg, over 2 yuan higher than at the start of the year.
From a wholesale perspective, the price differential between LNG and diesel was compressed to less than 1.3 yuan per kilogram in less than a month from late April to late May.
Considering that diesel prices at many private fuel stations in northern provinces were below 7 yuan per liter, the actual cost advantage of gas over oil in May was minimal, with some areas even experiencing a price inversion where LNG was more expensive.
The core appeal of LNG trucks has always been their superior operating economy, allowing the higher upfront purchase cost compared to diesel models to be recouped through lower fuel expenses.
This economic edge, along with long range, has also been a key defense against the rise of electric trucks.
With this economic advantage largely vanishing in many regions since late April, a sharp sequential decline in LNG truck sales was inevitable.
Data based on domestic operating permit registrations shows natural gas truck sales plummeted by over 55% in May compared to April, with their estimated domestic market penetration rate falling to around 20%.
In contrast, stimulated by rising demand and high oil and gas prices, the new energy heavy truck market experienced accelerated growth in May.
Analysis of operating permit data reveals daily sales in this segment surged throughout the month.
Monthly terminal sales for new energy trucks in May soared more than 90% year-on-year and also saw single-digit percentage growth compared to April.
Consequently, the domestic penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks in May is estimated to have reached approximately 40%, with sales volume, growth rate, and market share all significantly higher than in March and April.
Strong market demand was complemented by supportive government policy for electric trucks.
On May 13, several ministries jointly issued detailed implementation rules for the 2026 program to scrap and replace old commercial trucks.
The rules explicitly state that the program will be funded by central government ultra-long-term special bonds and, while continuing to support the replacement of pre-China V emission standard trucks with low-emission models, will prioritize support for switching to electric trucks.
Local authorities are instructed to reserve necessary subsidy funds specifically for supporting the adoption of electric trucks.
The implementation of this old-for-new truck replacement policy also contributed to the year-on-year surge in new energy heavy truck sales in May.
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