New developments have emerged regarding the Strait of Hormuz. During today's Asian trading session, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with WTI crude futures falling over 4% at one point, and Brent crude futures dropping nearly 3%. The International Maritime Organization has scheduled a special council meeting at its London headquarters from the 18th to the 19th to discuss responses to the current impacts on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas. Additionally, UN Secretary-General António Guterres will travel to Brussels for emergency consultations with European officials concerning navigation and subsequent security measures for the strait.
In other news, according to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude inventories increased by 6.56 million barrels for the week ending March 13, far exceeding the Reuters survey expectation of 380,000 barrels. Meanwhile, Iraq signed an agreement to resume crude oil exports via Turkey, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and further pressuring oil prices. A recent report from JPMorgan also indicated that shipping traffic through the strait is sparse and "overwhelmingly linked to Iran," with Iran appearing to release some vessels after completing inspections. Data from shipping consultancy Kpler shows that currently only about 2 tankers per day are passing through the strait, compared to nearly 100 prior to the conflict.
Regarding the Middle East situation, reports from Iran on the 18th local time stated that Iran launched missiles equipped with cluster warheads toward the Tel Aviv area in Israel, in retaliation for the killing of Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Ali Larijani. Air raid sirens were activated in Jerusalem and other parts of Israel in the early hours of the 18th, with the Israeli Defense Forces confirming the detection of incoming Iranian missiles.
On March 18, international oil prices trended lower. As of 18:15 Beijing time, WTI crude futures were down 1.5% on the day at $94.1 per barrel, while Brent crude futures fell 0.21% to $103.2 per barrel.
The International Maritime Organization's special council meeting in London will focus on addressing the effects on regional shipping, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Citing remarks from IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez, the Financial Times reported on March 17 that naval escorts cannot "100% guarantee" the safety of vessels transiting the strait, and risks remain. Military assistance is "neither a long-term nor a sustainable solution."
On March 17 local time, UN Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq emphasized the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, stating that the key to restoring its safe operation lies in ending the conflict. Haq noted that Secretary-General Guterres will hold emergency talks in Brussels with European officials regarding navigation and follow-up security for the strait.
Julius Baer Group believes that the current high oil price environment is unlikely to persist. The safe passage of vessels deemed "friendly to Iran" is a dynamic worth monitoring.
In contrast, OCBC Bank's research unit suggested that Brent crude prices could remain elevated around $100 per barrel until mid-2026. The U.S.-Iran conflict has entered its third week with no reliable pathway to de-escalation. Moreover, supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained, with no U.S. partners responding to President Trump's call for joint military action to reopen the strait.
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically shrunk as the Middle East conflict enters its third week. While sporadic vessel transits continue, passage increasingly resembles a "controlled release."
JPMorgan's latest report described shipping in the strait as sparse and "overwhelmingly linked to Iran," with Iran appearing to permit some ships after inspections.
Analysts from the bank wrote, "Effectively, this creates a situation where the strait is not formally closed, but transit increasingly depends on political understanding with Tehran."
Ship-tracking data indicate that the few authorized vessels are abandoning standard routes, opting instead for channels between Larak and Qeshm islands, hugging the Iranian coastline. The report suggested, "This is not a standard route and reflects a process aimed at verifying vessel ownership and cargo, allowing passage for ships unaffiliated with the U.S. and its allies."
For example, some vessels bound for India received safe passage approval after their respective governments communicated with Iran. The Indian LPG carrier Nanda Devi, permitted to transit the strait, arrived at Vadinar port on March 17.
Kpler data reveal that only about 2 tankers per day are currently transiting the strait, down from roughly 100 before the conflict. Approximately 400 tankers remain idled in nearby waters.
In response to the strait's obstruction, Trump has urged allies to deploy naval vessels to help reopen it, proposing a multinational naval task force to escort commercial ships.
Analysts widely agree that the bottleneck for escorts is not the availability of warships, but whether Iran's low-cost deterrent capabilities can be neutralized.
Bob McNally, President of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official, stated, "Securing the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks. We will not be willing to send merchant vessels, or even escorted ships, through until we eliminate Iran's layered asymmetric capabilities: mines, fast-attack craft, submarines, and drones."
Geographical constraints also complicate escort operations. The strait narrows to less than 30 miles at its tightest point, placing shipping lanes within effective range of missiles, drones, and small boats. John Bradford, a former U.S. naval officer and co-founder of the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, noted that escort vessels can only provide protection within a limited radius, meaning the number of ships that can be safeguarded per transit is extremely low.
According to Torbjorn Soltvedt, Chief Middle East Analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, as long as Iran maintains a "sufficient threat," it can render the route's risks "unacceptable" for shipping without formally blockading the strait.
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