Market Analysis On monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver its third consecutive rate cut amid internal divisions, with officials likely signaling a pause afterward. CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point cut. Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated that the Fed still has significant room for further rate reductions. U.S. President Donald Trump emphasized that strong support for immediate substantial rate cuts would be a "litmus test" for selecting the next Fed Chair, adding that tariff adjustments could help lower prices of certain goods.
Futures Performance & Volume On December 9, 2025, the SHFE gold main contract opened at 958.04 yuan/gram and closed at 951.54 yuan/gram, down 0.75% from the previous session. Daily trading volume stood at 41,087 lots, with open interest at 129,725 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 955.70 yuan/gram and closed at 955.82 yuan/gram, up 0.45% from the afternoon close. The SHFE silver main contract opened at 13,726.00 yuan/kg and closed at 13,607.00 yuan/kg, down 0.72% from the prior session. Daily volume reached 1,309,030 lots, with open interest at 417,326 lots. The night session saw the contract open at 13,761 yuan/kg and close at 14,116 yuan/kg, surging 3.74% from the afternoon close.
U.S. Treasury Yield & Spread Monitor The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed flat at 4.184% on December 9, while the 10Y-2Y spread narrowed by 4.4 bps to 0.573%.
SHFE Gold/Silver Positions & Volume Changes For the Au2602 contract, long positions fell by 1,520 lots and short positions dropped by 933 lots. Total gold contract volume declined 21.77% to 291,806 lots. For the Ag2602 contract, long positions decreased by 6,943 lots and shorts fell by 7,051 lots. Silver contract volume slid 33.98% to 2,048,908 lots.
Precious Metals ETF Holdings Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,049.11 tons, while silver ETF holdings dropped by 36 tons to 15,889 tons.
Arbitrage Tracking Domestic premiums: Gold’s premium stood at 0.07 yuan/gram, while silver’s discount widened to -1,160.19 yuan/kg. The gold/silver ratio for SHFE main contracts was 69.93, down 0.02%, while the global ratio edged 0.35% lower to 72.01.
Fundamentals On December 9, SGE gold T+d volume fell 17.41% to 35,824 kg, and silver volume dropped 12.83% to 775,390 kg. Gold deliveries totaled 11,872 kg, with silver at 31,920 kg.
Strategy Gold: Cautiously Bullish Market expectations of aggressive easing, fueled by Hassett or Trump’s remarks, may support gold prices in a range-bound uptrend. The Au2602 contract is expected to trade between 940–980 yuan/gram. Silver: Neutral Silver’s macro drivers align with gold, but tight physical supply has propelled prices to record highs. While prices may consolidate, caution is warranted post-rally amid potential pullback risks if easing catalysts materialize. Arbitrage: Favor long gold/silver ratio on dips. Options: Pause.
Risks Overseas liquidity risks. Speculative positions continuing to unwind.
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