China Merchants Securities released a research report indicating that this week, improvements in sector momentum are primarily observed in information technology, resource commodities, and midstream manufacturing. Within upstream resources, prices for metals, steel, coal, and most chemical products have risen. In midstream manufacturing, prices across most of the new energy industry chain increased, and heavy-duty truck sales in April showed a widening year-on-year growth rate. In information technology, DDR5 memory prices continued to climb, and the year-on-year growth rate for global semiconductor sales in March expanded. In consumer services, hog prices rose, along with futures prices for corn and cotton. During the 2026 Labor Day holiday period, resident travel and consumption saw steady growth, while performance in general merchandise and cultural tourism was relatively subdued. The firm recommends sectors with high or improving景气度, such as nonferrous metals, chemicals, coal, lithium raw materials, semiconductors, and memory. The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows.
During the 2026 Labor Day holiday, resident travel consumption experienced robust growth, whereas goods consumption and cultural tourism performed modestly. In transportation, the long holiday boosted travel demand, leading to steady growth in passenger mobility. However, civil aviation faced pressure on passenger numbers due to high oil prices, and the Baidu Migration Index was below the level of the same period last year. Second-tier and lower-tier cities saw net inbound migration. The utilization rate of civil aviation aircraft recovered year-on-year, and airfares warmed up. The number of operated domestic flights decreased year-on-year, while international flights increased. Outbound and inbound tourism showed steady recovery, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free countries and enhanced convenience for inbound consumption experiences.
In goods consumption, offline commercial district foot traffic and spending saw steady growth, with Hainan's offshore duty-free sales achieving double-digit growth. For cultural and tourism consumption, nationwide growth likely remained in the single digits. Based on currently released data, tourist traffic and operating revenue at scenic spots in multiple regions saw slight positive growth, with strong boosts from events such as sports competitions and concerts. For the film box office, the Labor Day holiday period saw a slight year-on-year increase in revenue, but it remained nearly halved compared to 2023 and 2024 levels, with average ticket prices declining year-on-year.
In information technology, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the Taiwan Semiconductor Index, and the DXI Index rose this week. DDR5 memory prices increased, while DDR4 memory prices declined. The DRAM Index and NAND Index decreased week-on-week. The year-on-year growth rate for global semiconductor sales in March expanded. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for total profits in the software industry from January to March narrowed.
In midstream manufacturing, prices across most of the new energy industry chain rose this week, with lithium raw materials leading the gains. Within the photovoltaic industry chain, polysilicon prices increased, while wafer and module prices remained flat. Heavy-duty truck sales in April showed a widening year-on-year growth rate. The four-week rolling average for weekly port cargo throughput saw a narrowing year-on-year decline, while the four-week rolling average for weekly container throughput experienced a widening year-on-year increase. The CCFI, CCBFI, BDI, and BDTI indices all rose.
Regarding consumer demand, the price of raw milk declined, while the composite price of sugar increased. The wholesale price index for baijiu declined, as did the index for premium baijiu. Hog prices, average piglet prices, and average live pig prices all rose. In terms of pig breeding profits, profits for both self-rearing and purchasing piglets for fattening increased. In broiler farming, the price of broiler chicks remained unchanged. The vegetable price index rose, along with corn and cotton futures settlement prices. The ten-day average of box office revenue increased, while the ten-day average movie ticket price decreased week-on-week. The four-week rolling average retail sales value for air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and color TVs showed a widening year-on-year decline. The Chinese herbal medicine price index fell.
For resource commodities, the ten-day average transaction volume of construction steel increased. Prices for steel billets and rebar rose. In coal prices, the price of Qinhuangdao premium mixed thermal coal increased, as did the库提price of Jingtang Port's Shanxi primary coking coal. Futures settlement prices for coke and coking coal rose. Regarding inventories, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased, as did coking coal inventory at Jingtang Port and coke inventory at Tianjin Port. The national cement price index declined. The price of Brent crude oil fell internationally. The China Chemical Product Price Index rose, with prices for most organic chemical products increasing, led by gains in xylene, fuel oil, and toluene.
This week, industrial metal prices generally increased, with prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, cobalt, nickel, and lead rising, while inventories generally declined. The gold futures price decreased, while the spot price increased. Both futures and spot prices for silver rose.
In financials and real estate, there was a net injection in the money market, and overnight/2-week SHIBOR rates increased. The A-share turnover rate and daily trading value rose. The land transaction premium rate declined, and the transaction area for commercial housing decreased. The national volume of second-hand homes listed for sale declined, and the listing price index fell.
For utilities, China's natural gas factory gate price increased, as did the UK natural gas futures price. The China Manufacturing PMI index for April decreased month-on-month.
Risk提示: Industry support may fall short of expectations, and there is potential for macroeconomic volatility.
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