Prospects for a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran remained unclear, casting a shadow over global capital markets. On April 9, the three major US stock indices collectively declined. By 22:30 Beijing time, chip stocks showed mixed performance, while popular US-listed Chinese stocks fell broadly, and oil and gas shares rose across the board. US crude oil surged, climbing back above $100 per barrel.
Among major US tech stocks, Facebook rose nearly 3%, Amazon gained close to 2%, while Google and Microsoft each dropped more than 1%. In the semiconductor sector, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced over 0.8%. Leading memory chip maker
Oil and gas stocks generally rose, with Petrobras up over 4%, TotalEnergies gaining more than 3%, and Chevron and ExxonMobil each advancing over 1%. International oil prices continued to climb; at the time of writing, US crude had extended its gains to 8%, reaching $102 per barrel, while Brent crude rose over 4% to $99 per barrel.
US-listed Chinese stocks declined broadly, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index widening its loss to 1.88%. Among popular individual stocks, XPeng dropped more than 5%, while Baidu, Miniso, and Bilibili each fell over 3%. iQiyi, Sohu, and others declined more than 2%.
Gold and silver prices rose sharply in short-term trading. Spot gold extended its intraday gain to 1%, reaching $4,771 per ounce, while spot silver increased over 1.2% to $75 per ounce.
Two weeks after the US and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire, the Middle East has not returned to calm. Significant differences remain between the US and Iran, and the outlook for ceasefire negotiations remains uncertain. According to reports, a senior Iranian security official stated that there will be no negotiations if attacks on Lebanon do not cease, emphasizing that stopping the war against Hezbollah is a key part of Iran's plan.
Regarding the recent sharp volatility in crude oil markets, a latest research report from a securities firm pointed out that the core trading logic currently revolves around the pricing and adjustment of geopolitical risk premiums. On the first day of the ceasefire, Iran reportedly re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, Israel intensified strikes on Lebanon, and the US, Israel, and Iran all retained the option to resume hostilities at any time—signals indicating the high fragility of the ceasefire agreement. Market participants are advised to monitor the sustainability of the truce.
At the operational level, the report suggested investors adopt a wait-and-see approach and refrain from active participation. The fragility of the ceasefire has created a state of high uncertainty, where bullish and bearish drivers could shift rapidly. It is recommended to wait for clarity on the outcome of the first round of talks scheduled for April 11 and the implementation of the ceasefire before considering market entry.
Another securities firm expressed the view that for 2026, if the Strait of Hormuz partially reopens, oil prices could fall back to around $90 but not fully return to pre-conflict levels, while gold is more likely to experience high, wide fluctuations. If a scenario of "ceasefire + weakening US economy + Fed signaling rate cuts" materializes, gold could transition into a macro-easing bull market similar to the post-2003 period. If peace talks collapse and the Strait of Hormuz faces long-term blockade, establishing a new price floor for oil above $120, gold's ultimate upside potential would theoretically be greatest, though it might initially be pressured by liquidity conditions and high real interest rates.
Comments