The latest research report from Cinda Securities highlights that during an exclusive interview with CCTV on July 15, Nvidia (NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang confirmed the company has formally applied to resume H20 GPU sales to China. The U.S. government explicitly pledged to grant export licenses, accelerating Nvidia's preparations for imminent deliveries. As Nvidia's flagship compliant AI chip engineered specifically for China, the H20's renewed availability could alleviate pent-up domestic computing demand. Lingering supply chain uncertainties stemming from licensing ambiguities are expected to dissipate, restoring clarity to order visibility and shipment cadence for Nvidia's core suppliers. Performance growth momentum may intensify starting H2.
Cinda Securities outlined these key observations: U.S. authorities approved H20 export licenses while Nvidia prepares to launch a fully compliant RTX PRO GPU tailored for computer graphics, digital twins, and AI applications.
The H20's three-month export restriction lift substantially benefits domestic AI model training and inference capabilities. On April 15, Nvidia disclosed that exporting H20 chips or equivalents to China required U.S. licenses, projecting approximately $5.5 billion in related FY26Q1 expenses. Designed under Hopper architecture as a streamlined H100 variant to comply with export controls, the H20 remains Nvidia's most advanced AI chip legally exportable to China under current regulations. Although delivering just one-sixth of H100's computing power, the H20 retains practical competitiveness through superior bandwidth and memory architecture. As a critical AI accelerator in China, clustered deployments enable near-H100 performance levels. This restriction removal will partially fulfill domestic large-model computational needs, catalyzing hardware and software advancement across China's AI ecosystem.
H20's revival could propel supply chain performance while reversing prior market pessimism. Cinda Securities emphasizes that as Nvidia's primary compliant AI solution for China, H20's return addresses accumulated computing deficits. Order delays and caution across the industrial chain should ease with regulatory clarity. Nvidia's key suppliers anticipate enhanced order transparency and shipment predictability, with H2 performance drivers poised to strengthen.
Investment recommendations focus on two segments: Overseas AI supply chain targets include Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138.SH), Wus Printed Circuit (002463.SZ), Avary Holding (002938.SZ), Victory Giant Technology (300476.SZ), Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), and Shengyi Electronics (688183.SH). Domestic AI supply chain opportunities cover VeriSilicon (688521.SH), Cambricon (688256.SH), Hygon (688041.SH), SMIC (688981.SH), and Shennan Circuits (002916.SZ).
Risk Warning: Semiconductor localization progress may lag expectations; downstream demand growth faces uncertainty.
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