Goldman Sachs has released a research report indicating that AIA Group, Prudential plc, and FWD Group are scheduled to announce their first-quarter operational data on April 30. The firm forecasts that AIA's first-quarter new business value (VONB) will increase by 16% year-on-year to $1.739 billion, calculated at actual exchange rates (AER). Prudential's first-quarter new business profit (NBP) is expected to grow by 14% year-on-year to $695 million, while FWD's first-quarter new business value (NBV) is projected to show single-digit growth. Goldman Sachs maintains "Buy" ratings on AIA, Prudential, and FWD, with target prices unchanged at HK$97, HK$151, and HK$43, respectively.
The report notes that investor concerns regarding first-quarter and full-year growth in the Hong Kong market primarily stem from strong sales in the 2025 fiscal year, which were partly driven by promotional activities ahead of regulatory changes, particularly within the brokerage channel. Goldman Sachs believes that FWD's high base effect has been well-telegraphed, with management anticipating a slight year-on-year increase. For AIA and Prudential, given the normalized base in the first quarter of 2025, no significant drag is expected.
Goldman Sachs anticipates that AIA, Prudential, and FWD will continue to achieve double-digit growth in new business value in the Hong Kong market for the 2026 fiscal year. This growth is expected to be supported by sustained demand from mainland Chinese visitors (MCV), with visitor numbers in the first quarter of this year rising 20% year-on-year, surpassing the 11% growth recorded for the full year 2025. This increase is likely to drive robust growth in the number of new policies.
Comments