Geopolitical tensions have not shown clear signs of de-escalation. The US military has launched new strikes against Iran, and US President Donald Trump indicated on social media that the US would launch a strong retaliatory action following recent personnel casualties. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated it had attacked US military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait in three phases. Senior Iranian sources mentioned that mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire to discuss reviving the interim agreement between Iran and the US. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed receiving the proposal, stating that negotiations with the US depend on whether they align with Iran's national interests.
Futures Market and Volume Data:
On 2026-07-20, the main Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 866.70 yuan per gram and closed at 874.24 yuan per gram, a change of 0.06% from the previous trading day's close. The day's trading volume was 41,087 contracts, with open interest at 129,725 contracts. In the overnight session, the main contract opened at 874.84 yuan and closed at 874.62 yuan, up 0.04% from the previous afternoon's close.
On the same date, the main Shanghai silver futures contract opened at 13,480.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 13,753.00 yuan per kilogram, a change of 1.71%. The day's trading volume was 646,870 contracts, with open interest at 210,628 contracts. The overnight session saw the main contract open at 13,823 yuan and close at 13,840 yuan, up 0.63% from the previous afternoon.
US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring:
On 2026-07-20, the US 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.55%, a change of -0.02% from the previous day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.37%, a change of -0.04% from the prior session.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Precious Metals Position and Volume Changes:
On 2026-07-20, for the Au2608 contract, long positions changed by -4,080 lots compared to the previous day, while short positions changed by 812 lots. The total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 300,196 lots, a change of 41.90% from the day before. For silver, on the Ag2608 contract, long positions changed by -3,656 lots and short positions by -6,774 lots. The total trading volume for Shanghai silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,146,637 lots, a change of 16.49%.
Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking:
For precious metals ETFs, gold ETF holdings stood at 999.02 tonnes yesterday, down 2.86 tonnes from the previous day. Silver ETF holdings were 14,939 tonnes, unchanged from the prior session.
Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking:
Futures-Spot Basis: On 2026-07-20, the domestic premium for gold was -2.68 yuan per gram, and for silver was -280.98 yuan per kilogram. Gold-Silver Ratio: The ratio based on the main Shanghai futures contracts was approximately 63.57 yesterday, a change of 2.27% from the previous day. The international gold-silver ratio was 72.32, a change of 1.37% from the prior session.
Fundamental Data:
In the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market, the trading volume for gold on the previous trading day (2026-07-20) was 28,252 kilograms, a change of 59.44% from the day before. Silver trading volume was 295,600 kilograms, a change of 19.21%. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and silver delivery volume was 24,840 kilograms.
Market Outlook and Strategy:
Gold: Neutral Outlook
Market risk sentiment has seen some increase, which may slightly weaken investment demand for gold. Therefore, it is expected that gold prices will likely move in a range-bound pattern in the near term. The Au2608 contract may fluctuate within a range of 860 yuan per gram to 920 yuan per gram. The evolution of the geopolitical situation should be closely monitored.
Silver: Neutral Outlook
The current logic for silver is similar to that of gold, with its price also expected to maintain a range-bound pattern. The Ag2608 contract may fluctuate within a range of 13,400 yuan per kilogram to 14,000 yuan per kilogram.
Arbitrage: Pause
Options: Pause
Key Risk Factors:
Overseas liquidity risks.
Sustained exit of speculative positions.
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