Corn: Neutral Yesterday, the March corn futures contract closed up 0.31% at 2,283 yuan per ton. The national average spot price for corn was quoted at 2,281 yuan per ton, showing no change from the previous day. On the 21st, the China Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin) Jilin branch auctioned 46,000 tons of corn, achieving a 100% clearance rate. Recent auctions and sales have been frequent, with clearance rates climbing significantly, indicating that Spring Festival restocking may be starting in full swing. However, deep-processing profits are generally down about 30% year-on-year, which is partially suppressing the pace of inventory replenishment. According to the latest customs data, China's corn imports in 2025 totaled 2.65 million tons, a decrease of 81% compared to the previous year. View Summary: For the March corn contract, watch for support near 2,250 yuan, with resistance around 2,330 yuan; the outlook for the month is neutral to slightly bullish.
Soybean Meal: Neutral Persistent rainfall has slowed the soybean harvest in Brazil, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybean prices overnight. Weather forecasts indicate a prominent pattern of "more rain in the north, less in the south" across the Southern Cone region. Widespread heavy rainfall is expected in northern and central-western Brazil over the coming week, with precipitation likely to diminish marginally in the second week. Southern Brazil and core production areas in Argentina are expected to see almost no rain initially, with some recovery anticipated in the second week; monitor the potential for drought development in Argentina. The rebound in U.S. futures provides marginal support to meal prices from the cost side. Concurrently, concerns over potentially tight domestic soybean supplies in the future and uncertainty regarding the pace of state reserve releases also offer some support. On the other hand, crush margins for Brazilian soybeans on far-month shipments are currently relatively attractive, suggesting that if pressure from South American arrivals materializes, profits might still be squeezed out through a decline in meal prices. View Summary: Short-term focus is on how changes in South American precipitation forecasts may disrupt U.S. markets. The May contract is expected to trade within a range of 2,700-2,800 yuan per ton today.
Eggs: Neutral Spot prices in main production areas are rising. The average spot price in Guantao, Hebei, is approximately 3.44 yuan per jin, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day. After a brief period of sideways movement, spot prices have resumed their upward trend. From the supply perspective, the drawdown in production capacity is the core logic supporting prices. Following a relatively sluggish adjustment period in 2025, producers have accelerated the culling of older, less efficient hens. The national average culling age for layer hens has decreased significantly from a high of 548 days at the beginning of 2025 to the current 485 days, gradually returning to a more reasonable range and providing short-term support. In the medium to long term, the price center for eggs is expected to gradually shift upwards, with the core driver being the relatively clear trend of capacity reduction. A key risk is that a recovery in farming profits could affect the pace of capacity drawdown; if rising egg prices lead to a slowdown in culling or an earlier-than-expected rebound in restocking意愿, it would weaken the positive impact of supply-side improvements. Trading Strategy: The potential return of hedging pressure may significantly affect the premium on far-month contracts, and the previously deep Contango structure has already been corrected.
Live Hogs: Neutral Yesterday, the average price for live hogs in main production areas was approximately 12.97 yuan per kilogram. Spot prices have weakened after touching a阶段性 peak, showing a significant adjustment yesterday. The inventory of breeding sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million head, a decrease of 1.16 million head, down 2.9% year-on-year. Profits for both farrow-to-finish operations and those purchasing piglets for finishing have moved near the breakeven point, indicating a significant easing of industry losses. Against the backdrop of relatively strong spot price fluctuations this year, the process of capacity reduction was already expected to be曲折, accompanied by adjustments in market expectations. Far-month price movements are inherently more dependent on expectations; given that the futures curve already reflects a Contango premium, they may also be subject to greater influence from shifts in sentiment. Trading Strategy: Short-term focus is on the risk of a spot price pullback. In the medium term, opportunities for long positions may still be considered after the far-month premium converges.
Risk Warning: This information was prepared by the analyst team of the futures company's Research & Development Department. The information contained herein is sourced from publicly available materials. CITIC Securities Futures strives for accuracy and reliability but makes no guarantee regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information. Trading based on this information is undertaken at one's own risk. This report does not constitute personal trading advice and does not consider the specific trading objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this information suit their particular circumstances.
Comments