From 2022 to 2025, with the exception of a reduction of 2 tons in 2022, Poland's central bank ranked as the largest or second-largest official gold buyer each year, accumulating over 320 tons of gold during the four-year period.
On April 9, 2026, Poland's central bank governor Adam Glapiński confirmed during a press conference following the Monetary Policy Council's decision-making meeting that the bank will continue to purchase gold. He reiterated the central bank's objective to increase its gold holdings to 700 tons.
According to a central bank monthly report released by the World Gold Council on April 2, Poland's central bank was the largest gold buyer in February 2026, with net purchases of 20 tons—the highest since February 2025. The report also indicated that global central banks purchased a net 19 tons of gold in February 2026. Although this figure remains below the monthly average of 26 tons reported in 2025, it marks a recovery from the net 5 tons purchased in January 2026.
Additionally, between 2022 and 2025, Poland's central bank consistently ranked as the top or second-largest official gold buyer each year, except for 2022 when it reduced holdings by 2 tons. Over this four-year span, the bank purchased more than 320 tons of gold. Adam Glapiński also mentioned that no consensus was reached regarding proposals to use reserves to fund military expenditures. In early March, he had considered selling part of the gold reserves to raise $13 billion for defense spending, with the intention of repurchasing the gold after securing profits.
Beyond Poland's central bank, other emerging market central banks—including those of Turkey and Russia—also planned or decided to sell gold between February and March. A commentary released by the World Gold Council on April 8 suggested that some central banks' gold sales were driven by liquidity needs rather than a shift in purchasing strategy.
Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated on April 9 that the IMF would lower its growth forecasts due to significant infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, loss of confidence, and other traumatic effects resulting from the Middle East situation. She emphasized that many countries face limited fiscal policy space, with public debt substantially higher than two decades ago and rising interest payments consuming a larger share of revenue.
In response, Zhao Xiangbin, a researcher at the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center, noted that these conditions may constrain gold purchases by some small and medium-sized central banks. Countries with limited fiscal space and rising interest payment burdens—particularly those facing expanding fiscal deficits and currency depreciation pressures, such as Turkey, the Philippines, and Russia—may experience greater pressure to adjust their balance sheets passively. In contrast, central banks of fiscally stronger nations are likely to continue buying gold during price dips to increase their reserves.
Poland’s Central Bank Confirms Continued Gold Purchases On April 9, 2026, Adam Glapiński reaffirmed during the press conference that Poland’s central bank will continue its gold purchasing activities without change. He stated, "The central bank is implementing a strategy to increase gold reserves, with the goal of raising gold holdings to 700 tons."
The World Gold Council’s February central bank report, released on April 2, showed that Poland’s central bank was the largest gold buyer in February 2026, with net purchases of 20 tons—the highest since February 2025, when it purchased 29 tons. This brought the bank’s total gold reserves to 570 tons by the end of February, accounting for 31% of its total reserves.
Glapiński further indicated during the April 9 press conference that the central bank took advantage of the price decline following escalated Middle East tensions to increase its gold holdings, bringing the total to 580 tons.
In March, gold prices experienced a consecutive decline. Based on the LBMA Gold Price (afternoon fixing, USD), the spot gold price fell approximately 13.82% between March 11 and March 23, 2026, dropping from $5,182.4 per ounce to $4,466.25 per ounce. Only a brief rebound occurred on March 17.
According to the World Gold Council’s global gold demand trends report, Poland’s central bank ranked as the largest or second-largest official gold buyer each year from 2022 to 2025, except for a reduction of 2 tons in 2022. Over this period, the bank purchased more than 320 tons of gold. Glapiński also noted that no consensus was reached on proposals to use reserves for military funding.
In early March, Glapiński had explored selling part of the gold reserves to raise $13 billion for defense spending, intending to repurchase the gold later after realizing profits. Aside from Poland’s central bank, other emerging market central banks, including those of Turkey and Russia, also planned or decided to sell gold between February and March.
The World Gold Council’s April 8 commentary suggested that some central banks’ gold sales were motivated by liquidity considerations rather than a strategic shift away from gold. This view is supported by Federal Reserve data indicating that central banks have also increased direct sales of U.S. Treasury securities to hedge against higher energy price risks.
Federal Reserve data showed that as of the week ending April 8, 2026, the value of U.S. Treasury securities held in custody at the New York Fed by official institutions (mainly central banks, but also governments and international organizations) stood at approximately $2.70 trillion—a decrease of about $80 billion from the week of February 25, prior to the escalation in the Middle East. Short-term gold sales may not alter the medium- to long-term strategic accumulation of gold by emerging market central banks.
A market report released by EBC Financial Group on April 7 revealed that between 2020 and 2024, central banks of BRICS Plus member countries accounted for over 50% of global sovereign gold purchases. BRICS Plus members currently hold more than 6,000 tons of gold, representing approximately 17.4% of total global central bank reserves, up from 11.2% in 2019.
The report indicated that among BRICS Plus countries, Russia holds about 2,300 tons of gold reserves, China holds over 2,300 tons, and India holds around 880 tons. Combined, Russia and China account for more than 70% of the group’s total gold holdings.
Potential Constraints on Gold Purchases by Small and Medium-Sized Central Banks Kristalina Georgieva stated on April 9 that the IMF would lower its growth forecasts due to severe infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, loss of confidence, and other adverse effects resulting from the Middle East situation. She noted that the economic impact varies across regions. Countries able to export oil and gas without disruption are the least affected.
In contrast, nations directly impacted by conflict—including those whose oil and gas exports face blockades—as well as countries reliant on oil and gas imports, continue to bear the brunt of the shock. Georgieva explained that the shock may evolve through three main channels.
Rising prices of key inputs drive inflation higher, and combined with shortages, significantly reduce demand. Second, inflation expectations may become unanchored, triggering a costly inflationary process. Short-term expectations have risen amid increased uncertainty, while long-term expectations remain unchanged. Financial market conditions have tightened in an orderly manner, with emerging market bond spreads widening substantially, equity prices adjusting, and the U.S. dollar appreciating. The IMF now observes some signs of easing. Additionally, Georgieva emphasized that the world faces insufficient fiscal policy space. Public debt is generally much higher than two decades ago—including in most G20 countries—reflecting a widespread neglect of fiscal consolidation during favorable periods. As a result, the share of interest payments in revenue is rising across the board.
Zhao Xiangbin commented that these conditions may limit gold purchases by some small and medium-sized central banks. Countries with constrained fiscal space and rising interest payment burdens—especially those with expanding fiscal deficits and currency depreciation pressures, such as Turkey, the Philippines, and Russia—may face more significant constraints. Conversely, central banks of fiscally robust nations are likely to continue buying gold during market dips to bolster reserves.
Zhao also suggested that downward revisions to growth forecasts may accelerate the further concentration of gold holdings, potentially turning small and medium-sized central banks into net sellers. This could increase gold supply in the market, exerting short-term downward pressure on prices.
Since early April 2026, gold prices have fluctuated within a narrow range. Based on the LBMA Gold Price (afternoon fixing, USD), the price fell from $4,739 per ounce on April 1 to $4,611.7 per ounce on April 7. It then rebounded to $4,792.55 on April 8, before slightly retreating to $4,762.6 on April 9. As of 18:00 on April 10, spot gold was trading at $4,752.82 per ounce, down over 0.2% on the day.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, Zhao noted that despite short-term pressures, gold demand remains solid due to ongoing de-dollarization trends, which should partially offset downward price pressures. On April 8, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media a two-week pause in bombing and attacks against Iran, causing WTI crude futures to drop nearly 20% and Brent crude futures to fall over 15%. Both oil prices later rebounded.
As of 18:00 on April 10, WTI crude was trading at $98.74 per barrel, up over 0.7% on the day, while Brent crude stood at $93.94 per barrel, up over 0.03%. Zhao believes that if oil prices remain elevated over the long term, persistently fueling inflation and amplifying global stagflation risks, gold’s role as a hedge against stagflation will become more prominent. If oil prices retreat, easing inflationary pressures and reducing constraints on interest rate hikes, gold prices may experience a restorative rise.
Comments