On March 5th, citing Israeli media reports, it was disclosed by senior US officials that "Iranian Kurdish opposition forces" stationed in Iraq have initiated a "ground offensive" against Iran from the country's north. Officials from both Israel and the United States confirmed that thousands of Kurdish militia members have begun "conducting ground activities" within Iranian territory, starting from border areas in Iraq. The "Iranian Kurdish opposition forces" are believed to have several thousand soldiers based in Iraq. This "ground" intervention not only poses a potential direct challenge to Iran but could also further entangle Iraq in the ongoing regional conflict. Media analysis suggests that the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Trump administration are actively negotiating with these Kurdish militias and Iraqi Kurdish leaders. The discussions focus on providing them with weapons, intelligence, and training support, aiming to incite public uprisings inside Iran and tie down Iranian security forces. Previous reports indicated that former President Trump held a phone call with an Iraqi Kurdish leader on March 1st. They discussed the recent US-Israel strikes against Iran and potential future scenarios. Trump is also reportedly engaging with other local officials. Trump himself has told US media that he does not rule out the possibility of sending US troops into Iran "if necessary," although he has subsequently backtracked on such statements. He stated, "I'm not like every president that says 'there will never be ground troops.' I said 'probably won't have to' or 'if it's necessary.'"
**The US-Israel "Proxy Ground Force" Plan** Informed sources revealed to American media that Iranian Kurdish militias are discussing their potential role in US-Israel military actions against Iran with the Trump administration. These armed groups are requesting intelligence, weapons, training support, and the establishment of a no-fly zone from the US. While no formal agreement has been reached yet, two informed sources described the initiative as a joint US-Israel effort, with the US Central Intelligence Agency playing a leading role. Reports indicate that CIA support for Iranian Kurdish militia actions began months before the outbreak of war. A former CIA official stated that the agency "has maintained very good relations with Iranian Kurds for many years." Recently, the Israeli military conducted strikes on military and police posts along the Iran-Iraq border. This is partly believed to be an effort to pave the way for Kurdish militias to enter northwestern Iran.
**Trump's Direct Involvement** Former US President Trump was personally involved in communications with Kurdish leaders. Reports indicate Trump spoke by phone with a senior figure from the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), which is considered an unprecedented contact for a US president. Additionally, he held conversations with Iraqi Kurdish leader Bafel Talabani. However, Trump's statements regarding support for the Iranian opposition have been inconsistent. He once encouraged the opposition to take over the government, but this week he stated that he had fulfilled his promises to the Iranian people and that what happens next "is up to" them. This policy uncertainty has raised concerns among Kurdish militias. An Iraqi Kurdish senior official was quoted by media as saying, "One day Trump says we will overthrow the regime, the next day he says something different. The policy is not clear."
**Any "Ground Operation" Implies "Years of Quagmire": Iran's Vastness and Complexity** Although the White House has not ruled out the possibility of US ground force intervention and is actively arming proxies, military observer Tyler Durden issued a stern warning: most Americans lack a basic understanding of Iran's geographical scale and population. Any form of ground operation would be a nightmare. First is the daunting scale. Iran's population exceeds 90 million, more than double that of its neighbor, Iraq. Geographically, Iran's territory spans approximately 1.65 million square kilometers, comparable in size to the US state of Alaska. If superimposed on a map of the contiguous United States, Iran would cover nearly one-third of the area. Even compared to Texas, Iran appears immense. Analysis points out that US operations in Iraq, a country much smaller than Iran, lasted two decades and came at a heavy cost. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has persisted for years, and Iran's territory is far larger than Ukraine's. The difficulty of externally "pacifying" a population of 90 million across such a vast geographical area is unimaginable.
Second is the brutal history of war and challenging terrain. The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the deadliest modern war in the Middle East, was a brutal war of attrition fought largely on the ground and with artillery. At that time, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, with covert US support, attacked Iran. Despite causing hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides, Iran endured and survived the stalemate. This historical resilience suggests Iran possesses a high tolerance for endurance when facing an existential battle. More specific tactical challenges involve urban and mountainous terrain. The metropolitan area of Iran's capital, Tehran, has a population of around 16 million, comparable in size to New York City and extremely dense. Any ground activity targeting such a megacity would inevitably involve time-consuming and brutal urban warfare. US veterans of battles in Baghdad or Fallujah know well that clearing a single building can take hours and involves extreme risk. Furthermore, the Kurdish-populated region in northwestern Iran, where US-Israel hopes are currently pinned, is precisely an area of complex, rugged, and rocky mountainous terrain. This means any ground operation or unrest initiated by Kurdish proxies would be slow and arduous. Conversely, this easily defensible terrain could actually favor Iranian government forces. As Mark Twain's famous quote ironically notes, "God created war so that Americans would learn geography." Faced with Iran's immense territory and complex realities, the US military's "ground option" is likely far from straightforward.
**Strong Concerns from Iraq and Turkey** The plan to arm Iranian Kurds has triggered strong reactions within the region. Any weapons supply would need to transit through Iraqi Kurdistan, causing deep unease for the Iraqi government. Reportedly, Iraqi government officials have compared this move to the US's covert support for the "Afghan Mujahideen" in the 1980s, fearing it could severely destabilize the region. Iraq's National Security Advisor, Qasim al-Araji, explicitly stated that Iraq will not allow any group to "infiltrate or cross the Iranian border to carry out terrorist acts from Iraqi territory." Simultaneously, Turkey is also on high alert. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Ankara is closely monitoring the situation, as some Iranian Kurdish armed groups have close ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkey has long been combating. Latest reports indicate that Iraq has announced an extension of its airspace closure for another 72 hours. The Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority issued a statement on the 4th, citing the ongoing escalation of regional tensions, deciding to extend the nationwide airspace closure. The statement said the extension takes effect from 12:00 local time on the 4th until 12:00 on the 7th, during which all inbound, outbound, and transit flights are prohibited.
**Internal Rifts and Historical Baggage of Kurdish Militias** Although the US hopes that Kurdish militias can tie down Iranian military strength, intelligence assessments indicate these groups currently lack the influence and resources to successfully launch an uprising. Media analysis points out that Kurdish opposition organizations are internally divided, with differing ideologies and agendas. Furthermore, Kurds have limited trust in the United States. Historically, Kurdish militias have cooperated with the US on multiple occasions but have often been "abandoned." CNN national security analyst Alex Plitsas warned, "If an uprising is unsuccessful and the US withdraws, it adds to the narrative of America abandoning the Kurds." This historical baggage means that before committing to joining resistance actions, Kurdish militias urgently require political guarantees from the Trump administration.
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