As the inaugural year of China's 15th Five-Year Plan, 2026 marks the economy's entry into a new phase of development. In a recent special program, 26 chief economists, chief analysts, and prominent fund managers shared their analyses and outlooks for China's economic performance and new investment opportunities in the coming year.
Regarding China's macroeconomic prospects for 2026, the experts unanimously emphasized the importance of a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan, expressing confidence in the economy. They noted that while China's growth rate has moderated since 2010 due to its expanding economic scale, a growth rate around 5% remains among the highest globally.
On the A-share market, both domestic and international experts agreed that A-shares are in a genuine "slow bull" market. They highlighted that the three major pressures previously weighing on Chinese assets—narratives about economic stagnation, private sector decline, and technological backwardness—have diminished. Instead, three supportive forces are now underpinning the market: sustained institutional dividends from China's unique financial development path, economic stabilization, and the ongoing reallocation of social wealth into equities. The formation of a赚钱效应 (wealth effect) in the capital markets is driving a sustained migration of funds into equity assets, a trend expected to persist.
Experts advised maintaining a strategic bullish stance on A-shares but reminded investors to respect the "slow" aspect of the "slow bull" market, anticipating fluctuations and advocating a long-term perspective. The market may experience an "N"-shaped trajectory in 2026, with potential consolidation in the second quarter before likely improved performance in the latter half.
Regarding the Hong Kong stock market, multiple chiefs described it as being in its "early summer" phase, characterized by attractive valuations and quality assets. They believe H-shares offer value compared to other global markets and expect incremental capital inflows from both southbound and returning foreign funds, particularly amid a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle.
On foreign investment, analysts pointed out that global institutional investors remain underweight Chinese assets, indicating significant room for increased allocation. The trend of foreign capital adding Chinese holdings is expected to continue as valuations and corporate fundamentals improve.
For sector allocation, technology and gold were consistently favored. Within technology, artificial intelligence (AI) is seen as a key investment theme for 2026, driven by demand growth and innovation. However, experts cautioned that stock selection within the tech sector will require greater discernment due to elevated valuations after the 2025 rally. They also noted the need to monitor potential adjustments in U.S. tech stocks, which could impact domestic sectors.
As for gold, despite setting numerous records in 2025, experts believe its upward trend is far from over. Long-term drivers include central bank demand, currency debasement concerns, and geopolitical instability. Prices are projected to potentially stabilize above $5,500 per ounce in 2026, though volatility within a range is expected due to crowded positioning. Investors were advised to avoid chasing rallies during periods of peak enthusiasm and instead consider opportunities during market pullbacks.
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