On December 9, the second half of 2026 is expected to see further upward momentum in gold prices, driven by central bank purchases, concerns over fiscal dominance risks, and steady investment demand. OEXN suggests that while silver demand may slow in key sectors, it could still follow gold’s upward trend. According to Heraeus, precious metals may remain under pressure in early 2026, with the downtrend likely persisting for some time. Following a rapid rally that pushed gold and silver to record highs and platinum group metals (PGMs) to multi-year peaks, prices may need a consolidation phase. OEXN believes gold could regain momentum later in the year, though months of sideways trading may precede a sustained rebound.
While investment demand fuels price gains, shifts in physical metal flows also impact market liquidity. For instance, Heraeus notes that metal shipments to the U.S. have influenced supply-demand dynamics, alongside uncertainty over potential tariffs on certain PGMs. OEXN highlights that central bank gold buying will provide solid price support, particularly amid low interest rates and potential declines in real yields. High silver prices have dampened industrial and consumer demand, but if gold continues rising, silver may still track its upward trajectory.
Despite tight platinum supply in 2026, weaker demand could narrow deficits, while palladium and rhodium markets may see easing tightness due to declining sales of internal combustion engine vehicles. Among minor PGMs, rhodium remains tighter than iridium, supported by data center-driven demand for hard drives, though prices may have peaked near-term. Overall, downside risks persist for precious metals, especially if economic growth slows or a recession looms, potentially pressuring PGM prices.
In the gold market, prices still have room to rise after their recent surge but may first undergo consolidation. Central bank demand is unlikely to wane, with the World Gold Council reporting that 43% of central banks plan to increase gold reserves while reducing dollar holdings. This trend, coupled with sustained investment demand, will be key drivers of long-term gold appreciation. High prices have curbed jewelry consumption, though a pullback could revive buying. OEXN expects strong coin and bar demand in 2026, with room for ETF inflows despite short-term profit-taking.
For silver, OEXN anticipates demand headwinds in 2026. Heraeus projects weaker photovoltaic silver demand and limited industrial/jewelry growth, though investment demand may underpin the market. Despite silver’s record highs in 2025, ETF and retail interest suggests lingering upside potential. As a high-volatility asset, silver’s trajectory will hinge on gold’s performance, economic conditions, and monetary policy. A continued gold rally could lift silver as well.
In summary, 2026’s precious metals market may follow a "consolidation-then-rally" pattern. Gold benefits from central bank buying, low rates, and steady investment, while silver relies on investment demand amid industrial constraints. PGM prices will hinge on automotive and industrial shifts but retain investment and hedging appeal. OEXN advises monitoring central bank actions and global economic trends as critical indicators for precious metals pricing.
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