Abstract
Avino Silver & Gold Mines will report first-quarter 2026 results on May 13, 2026 Post Market, with this preview outlining headline forecasts for revenue, earnings, and margins alongside the operational and financial factors likely to drive the print and near-term stock performance.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, forecasts point to revenue of 43.19 million US dollars, implying year-over-year growth of 153.17%, and adjusted EPS of 0.095, up 216.67% year-over-year; the EBIT projection stands at 28.25 million US dollars, up 393.38% year-over-year. No formal gross margin or net margin guidance was indicated for the quarter; investors will extrapolate from last quarter’s profitability and the latest production update, which signaled lower grades but higher mill throughput.
Avino Silver & Gold Mines’ core business is the sale of silver-copper-gold concentrates, and its near-term outlook hinges on throughput, grades, recoveries, and realized smelter terms; management’s operational update referenced planned mining in lower-grade areas in the quarter, with an 11% year-over-year increase in mill throughput moderating the impact. The most promising segment remains silver, which accounted for approximately 45.61% of last quarter’s revenue (about 13.93 million US dollars); explicit year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed for the quarter, so context should be drawn from the overall topline growth rate.
Last Quarter Review
Avino Silver & Gold Mines delivered revenue of 30.54 million US dollars in the previous quarter, with a gross profit margin of 60.36%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.46 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 34.25%, and adjusted EPS of 0.10, which rose 233.33% year-over-year. The quarter featured a revenue beat versus internal projections and a 25.27% year-over-year increase in sales, while net profit increased 35.81% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting solid conversion from revenue to earnings.
A key business highlight was a disciplined cost and smelter-terms profile that, combined with the sales mix, supported strong margins on a relatively compact revenue base. In terms of composition, the product mix skewed toward silver at approximately 45.61% of revenue, with copper at 29.93% and gold at 29.67%, partially offset by treatment and refining charges of about -5.21%; applying those shares to the 30.54 million US-dollar topline implies roughly 13.93 million for silver, 9.14 million for copper, and 9.06 million for gold last quarter.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business drivers and earnings translation
Avino Silver & Gold Mines’ core revenue stream is shaped by concentrate shipments of silver, copper, and gold, the grade profile of mined ore, metallurgical recoveries, and the cadence of invoice recognition as lots are provisionally priced and settled. For the quarter to be reported, forecasts imply a sharp step-up in the income statement year over year: revenue projected at 43.19 million US dollars, adjusted EPS at 0.095, and EBIT at 28.25 million US dollars. The inflection embedded in those numbers assumes that operational offsets can bridge lower grades with higher throughput and that smelter terms do not materially erode realized value.
Margin translation will likely track the interplay between head grades and recoveries against unit operating costs per processed tonne; because fixed and semi-fixed costs are spread over larger tonnage, the 11% year-over-year increase in mill throughput is supportive for the cost-per-tonne denominator. Last quarter’s 60.36% gross margin and 34.25% net margin provide a high baseline, though investors should be prepared for some compression if lower grades weighed on cash costs per ounce after credit and on smelter deductions. The net result could still be favorable on an absolute basis if the higher shipment base, combined with reasonable provisional pricing, sustains the revenue bridge implied by the forecast.
Most promising business and internal growth levers
Within the product suite, silver remains the most influential revenue contributor, accounting for approximately 45.61% of last quarter’s sales, or around 13.93 million US dollars when mapped to the 30.54 million US-dollar topline. Operationally, the company noted that the quarter included planned mining in lower-grade areas, which typically pressures contained ounces per tonne; however, that headwind can be mitigated by higher throughput, which was up 11% year over year. If grade normalization follows the planned mine sequence in subsequent months, silver sales volumes can rebound toward the product mix proportions implied by recent quarters, potentially reinforcing the earnings leverage visible in the consensus EPS estimate of 0.095.
The path to upside is execution-driven: stabilizing recoveries, managing dilution at the stope level, and maintaining mill availability to keep throughput elevated all raise the probability that the revenue forecast is attainable without major margin attrition. On the commercial side, steady concentrate qualities and predictable moisture/penalty profiles reduce variability in realized terms and shorten settlement cycles, supporting cash conversion. While explicit per-segment year-over-year growth rates were not disclosed, historical mix and the centrality of silver to the revenue stack justify viewing silver as the primary internal lever for earnings resilience and optionality in the current quarter.
Key stock-price swing factors this quarter
The first swing factor is operational delivery versus the updated production context: investors will scrutinize the reconciliation between lower-quarter grades and the 11% year-over-year throughput increase to gauge whether revenue tonnage and contained metal shipped align with the income-statement forecasts. The second is margin trajectory relative to last quarter’s benchmark of 60.36% gross margin and 34.25% net margin; even modest compression can be acceptable if the shipment base expands enough to uphold the EBIT and EPS forecasts. The third concerns smelter and refining terms, including treatment charges, refining charges, and any penalties or credits; movements here feed directly into realized netbacks and can influence quarter-end provisional pricing adjustments.
Two additional variables shape the print’s reception: the cadence of concentrate sales (shipment timing and provisional vs final settlement) and unit cash costs after by-product credits. If sales timing skews later in the quarter or if settlement adjustments are sizable, reported revenue and margin can deviate from steady-state run-rate even when operations are stable. Finally, the quarter-on-quarter comparability will be assessed against last quarter’s 35.81% net profit growth; investors will look for continuity in profitability, recognizing that mine sequencing can temporarily distort quarter-to-quarter trends, even as the longer operational plan aims for steadier grades and throughput.
Analyst Opinions
Across the period from January 2026 through early May 2026, formal sell-side previews specific to Avino Silver & Gold Mines were limited; among directional commentaries tied to company updates, the majority stance skews cautious. The latest operational communication highlighted a 10% year-over-year reduction in silver-equivalent output to 568,112 ounces, with gold production down 17% and copper down 16%, while mill throughput increased 11% year over year. This combination indicates that the quarter under review shifted into lower-grade zones as planned, which can dilute near-term revenue per tonne and pressure gross margin, even if higher tonnes mitigate the impact.
Against that backdrop, the consensus-like datapoints around the previous print showed adjusted EPS at 0.10 in line with expectations and revenue at 30.54 million US dollars exceeding projections by roughly 1.80 million US dollars. However, the more recent production commentary has been the dominant directional signal ahead of the May 13, 2026 report. Based on that emphasis, the balance of available views is bearish-cautious for the quarter’s operating backdrop, with attention on whether the revenue estimate of 43.19 million US dollars and EPS of 0.095 can be achieved without disproportionate margin concessions.
The cautious camp’s core argument relies on three threads: the arithmetic of lower grades on contained metal per tonne, the sensitivity of realized netbacks to treatment and refining charges and any penalties, and the potential for timing effects in concentrate sales to influence reported revenue. The counterpoint acknowledges the 11% year-over-year increase in mill throughput, which spreads fixed costs and can buoy EBIT translation, consistent with the 28.25 million US-dollar EBIT forecast. In summary, the majority perspective anticipates a mixed set of signals—adequate shipment volume underwriting the income-statement bridge, but with careful scrutiny on gross margin versus last quarter’s 60.36% and on whether GAAP profitability retains the strong conversion implied by the prior quarter’s 34.25% net margin.
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