On March 12, the three major A-share indices collectively declined. By the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.35%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.67%. The half-day turnover across the two markets was 1.59 trillion yuan, a reduction of 73.3 billion yuan compared to the previous session.
On the market, the chemical sector continued its strong performance. Jinniu Chemical achieved its fifth涨停 limit in nine trading days. Companies such as Lu Hua Technology, Sanfangxiang, Hebang Bio, ADAMA Ltd., and Baichuan Shares also hit the涨停 limit. The coal sector advanced, with Yanzhou Coal Mining and Zhengzhou Coal Industry & Electric Power reaching the涨停 limit, while China Coal Energy hit a new 18-year high. The green power concept saw repeated activity, with Green Development Power and Huadian Energy securing their third consecutive涨停 limit. The carbon fiber concept maintained its strength, with Zhongfu Shenying and Jilin Chemical Fiber hitting the涨停 limit.
On the downside, concepts related to gold, silver, non-ferrous metals, and minor metals remained weak. Computing hardware concepts such as optical modules, PCBs, and liquid cooling experienced a pullback.
Looking ahead, Huaxi Securities pointed out that by 2026, the structural focus is expected to shift from technology to the涨价 chain. Catalyzed by geopolitical tensions, the涨价 chain theme may continue to develop.
**Hot Sectors:**
1. **Chemical Sector Continues Strength** The chemical sector remained strong. Jinniu Chemical achieved its fifth涨停 limit in nine trading days. Companies like Lu Hua Technology, Sanfangxiang, Hebang Bio, ADAMA Ltd., and Baichuan Shares also hit the涨停 limit. *Commentary: On the news front, chemical futures continued to rise on the evening of March 11. Para-xylene futures hit the涨停 limit, up 13%; the main PTA contract touched the涨停 limit, rising 13.01%; the main bottle chip contract also hit the涨停 limit, gaining 12%; PVC rose nearly 9%, and ethylene glycol increased over 7%.*
2. **Coal Sector Advances** Yanzhou Coal Mining and Zhengzhou Coal Industry & Electric Power reached the涨停 limit, while China Coal Energy hit a new 18-year high. *Commentary: According to calculations by Changjiang Securities, if the Strait of Hormuz were blocked long-term, global power coal demand could increase by an annualized 84.86 million tonnes. If China's coal chemical plants were to operate at full capacity, this alone would boost domestic coal consumption by nearly 50 million tonnes.*
3. **Green Power Concept Sees Repeated Activity** The green power concept was active again, with Green Development Power and Huadian Energy securing their third consecutive涨停 limit. *Commentary: The "Data Center Green and Low-Carbon Development Special Action Plan" explicitly requires that new data centers in national hub nodes must source over 80% of their electricity from green power, and sets renewable energy utilization targets as a key component of energy conservation reviews.*
**Institutional Views:**
**Huaxi Securities: Three Major涨价 Themes Support A-Share Market** Huaxi Securities indicated that by 2026, the structural focus will shift from technology to the涨价 chain. Geopolitical tensions may continue to drive this theme. Regarding imported inflation, focus on the energy chain, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Within the energy chain,涨价 certainty is relatively high due to geopolitical influences, involving sectors like oil & gas, coal chemicals, mid-upstream chemical raw materials, and shipping. For non-ferrous metals,涨价 certainty is relatively higher for minor metals and aluminum, while gold and copper present a mixed outlook. For agricultural products, focus on feed ingredients, fertilizers, and pesticides. The chemical sector, driven by rising crude oil prices, has already entered a涨价 phase. Prices for coal, steel, building materials, and live hogs remain low, suggesting potential for recovery.
**Soochow Securities: Accelerating Market Theme Rotation; Indices May Continue Narrow Fluctuations** The Shanghai Composite Index continues to fluctuate above 4000 points, while the ChiNext and STAR Market show divergence. The short-term market is in a hesitant phase with rapid theme rotation, reflecting a lack of clear direction from large funds. Indices are expected to continue narrow fluctuations. A subsequent upward breakout likely depends on the finalization of external news and the sustained performance of new core themes. Patience is advised.
**Central China Securities: Solid Market Floor Support; Shanghai Index Likely to Maintain Minor Fluctuations** Central China Securities stated that recent escalations in the Middle East have stirred global capital markets, with surging oil prices fueling "stagflation" concerns that suppress risk appetite. However, considering the further clarification of domestic macro-policy stance, which provides solid bottom support for the market—the central bank has committed to flexibly using RRR and interest rate tools to maintain ample liquidity, while supporting Central Huijin's quasi-stabilization fund role—confidence in the subsequent market trend has been bolstered. The Shanghai Composite Index is likely to maintain minor fluctuations. Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy moves.
**Chasing Securities: A-Shares Expected to Show Relative Resilience; Excessive Worry Unnecessary** Recent thematic rotations have been rapid. The tech-focused sectors that led gains previously saw differentiation, while new energy and resource stocks gained rotational momentum. This indicates a lack of a persistent, leading theme with broad influence currently; funds are mainly rotating between hot spots, which might limit the rebound's height. Therefore, in the short term, with stable external macro disturbances, the broader market may remain stable, with indices primarily fluctuating. Medium-term, the impact of overseas macro events persists, suggesting a trend-based A-share market rise still requires waiting. Until late April, the market is likely to experience wide fluctuations with potentially increased volatility. Controlling positions reasonably and waiting for spontaneous market inflection signals is recommended. It's emphasized that regulators have strengthened strategic reserves and market stabilization mechanisms in recent years,全力维护市场稳定运行, leading to significantly reduced A-share market volatility. A-shares are expected to remain relatively resilient compared to overseas markets, making excessive worry unnecessary.
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