According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin's trading in week 40 displayed a classic divergence of "institutional buying against retail and derivatives selling."
Although ETF buyers provided strong support, the price ultimately fell back to the lower bound of the range it had traded in since touching $87,000 on Wednesday, around $84,000.
The overall weekly gain was about 4%, a performance owed mainly to early-week momentum rather than sustained strength over the weekend.
Notably, although ETF inflows hit a near one-year high, net selling in the perpetual contract market and the liquidation of long positions offset part of the buying power, causing price to come under pressure again on Monday.
This structural divergence reveals a complex capital battle inside the market: traditional financial capital is actively accumulating, while derivatives traders and some early holders prefer to lock in profits.
Spot market momentum indicators showed a significant strengthening of buying pressure, but also came with a rapid fading of sentiment.
The price momentum indicator rose 14.8% to 70.4, while RSI (Relative Strength Index) also climbed to 70.4.
Both readings are above their normal ranges, clearly pointing to buyers holding a distinct advantage and the market being in an overbought state.
However, this strength was not consistently confirmed by trading volume.
Spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) fell sharply by 86.5% to $17.3 million, returning to its statistically normal range.
This dramatic change reflects a substantial reduction in market makers' cumulative buying volume, with market participants becoming less certain about the price trend, signaling that short-term market momentum may be facing a shift.
At the same time, spot trading volume edged down 1.1% to $6.6 billion.
Although overall activity cooled slightly, it remained within the normal range, indicating that the market has not seen a large-scale withdrawal of funds but has instead entered a consolidation phase.
This divergence between momentum and volume suggests that the rally lacks sustained spot absorption capacity.
The derivatives market, by contrast, showed a completely different bear-dominated character, with fierce long-short battles in futures and perpetual contracts.
Futures open interest rose 2.1% to $38.9 billion, remaining persistently above the normal range, reflecting that speculative appetite in the market is still strong and that leverage levels within the system may rise accordingly.
Yet long funding fees plunged 53.2% to $1.2 million, returning to the normal range.
This indicates weakening confidence among investors holding long positions, increased market demand for short positions, and an overall shift toward neutral sentiment.
The more critical variable lies in perpetual contract CVD, which plummeted 137.1% to -$261.5 million, falling into negative territory and below the lower bound of the normal range.
This data clearly reveals extremely heavy net selling by market makers, with the market shifting completely from buyer-led to seller-led, showing obvious distribution behavior.
Although the bulls' advantage is weakening, the massive scale of open interest means potential liquidation risk still exists, and a further price decline could trigger a chain reaction.
Sentiment indicators in the options market also showed a contraction in risk appetite and reduced hedging demand.
Options open interest rose 4.1% to $44.4 billion, far above the normal range, indicating increased market participation, with more people using options for speculation or hedging.
The volatility spread surged 49.6% to -10.7%, returning from deeply negative territory to the normal range, suggesting that the options market expects future risk to be higher than current actual volatility.
Blind optimism is weakening, and price fluctuations are not expected to be too large.
In addition, the options 25-Delta skew fell 15.0% to 2.39%.
Although a positive skew remains, its magnitude has narrowed, meaning the market's demand for protection against downside risk has weakened and bearish or hedging sentiment has eased.
Although put options are still favored, directional preference is no longer so obvious, reflecting a cautious attitude amid high-level oscillations, with investors no longer making one-sided bets on gains and instead focusing more on risk management.
U.S. spot ETF (IBIT.US) fund flows became the week's most eye-catching driver, but also exposed a decline in trading activity.
Weekly net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs soared 367.95% from $575.3 million a week earlier to $2.7 billion, the largest weekly net inflow in nearly a year.
This enormous inflow is far above the normal range, showing increasingly strong demand from traditional finance investors and extremely powerful institutional accumulation, injecting a strong bullish mood into the market.
However, weekly trading volume for U.S. spot ETFs fell 17.83% from $18.1 billion to $14.9 billion.
Although still within the historical normal range, it indicates that overall investor activity has decreased and the market may be in a consolidation phase.
This combination of "surging net inflows and falling trading volume" suggests that large institutional orders are being executed in a relatively quiet market, which may push prices higher while also accumulating short-term pullback pressure.
In addition, the U.S. spot ETF MVRV ratio fell 3.6% from 1.54 to 1.49, still close to the upper limit of the normal range, indicating that ETF investors' average unrealized gains remain high and their portfolios are strongly profitable, but this also implies potential profit-taking pressure.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that on-chain fundamentals of network activity and capital flows present a pattern of "strong capital inflows and stable user activity."
Total fee revenue edged up 5.0% to $239,700, within the normal range, indicating stable network congestion.
However, entity-adjusted transfer volume surged 22.0% to $6.9 billion, far exceeding the normal range, reflecting a significant increase in capital movement and investor activity intensity, possibly the result of large-scale capital reallocation.
The number of daily active addresses rose only 0.5% to 640,100 addresses, within the normal range, showing that transaction demand is stable and has not expanded rapidly.
In terms of capital flows, the monthly change in realized market cap rose 0.6% to 1.1%, far above the normal range, indicating that net capital continues to flow into the Bitcoin network, a typical feature of the market's accumulation phase.
The supply ratio of short-term holders to long-term holders rose 1.4% to 13.5%, above the range, indicating an increase in newer, more responsive participants and intensified speculative behavior.
The hot capital share rose 3.9% to 18.8%, above the upper bound of the normal range, indicating a large inflow of price-sensitive short-term capital and increased sensitivity to market volatility.
Together, these on-chain data paint a picture of new capital flooding in while older users watch from the sidelines, laying the groundwork for further price swings.
Profit-and-loss indicators reveal the profit-taking pressure facing the market, which is the core internal reason for the price pullback.
The share of Bitcoin supply in profit rose 6.8% to 74.0%, up from 69.3% a week earlier and above the normal range, indicating that nearly three-quarters of circulating Bitcoin is in unrealized profit, that investors' profitability has improved, and that they are inclined to realize gains.
The net ratio of unrealized profit to loss surged 43.4% to 14.2%, up from 9.9% a week earlier and far above the normal range, showing that total unrealized profit across the network has increased substantially, with optimistic sentiment but huge profit potential.
More critically, the ratio of realized profit to loss soared 79.6% to 1.4, up from 0.8 a week earlier and far above the normal range.
This data strongly indicates that the market environment is dominated by profit-taking behavior, with early holders cashing out on a large scale.
This profit-taking under strong bullish sentiment hedges against continued ETF buying, explaining why, despite massive capital inflows, the price still struggled to break higher and fell back to the lower bound of the range.
In summary, this week's market was driven higher by ETF capital and new money inflows, but selling by perpetual contract market makers and on-chain profit realization formed strong resistance.
Future movement will depend on whether institutional buying can continue to absorb this selling pressure and whether the derivatives market will see further deleveraging.
Investors need to be alert to pullback risk amid high-level oscillations and pay attention to on-chain indicators, data dashboards, and alert functions provided by Glassnode Studio to obtain more precise market insights.
The full report can be downloaded in PDF format, related analysis information will be sent by email, and users can also follow the latest updates on the X platform or Telegram channels.
It should be noted that exchange balance data comes from Glassnode's comprehensive address label database, aggregated through official information and proprietary clustering algorithms, and may not fully reflect all exchange reserves in addresses that do not wish to be disclosed.
Please read the transparency statement carefully when using it. Glassnode is not responsible for data discrepancies.
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