Full Transcript: JD.com's Q4 Earnings Call - Higher Average Order Value in Electronics to Partially Offset Sales Decline

Deep News03-05 23:27

JD.com released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025. In Q4 2025, JD.com's revenue reached 352.3 billion yuan. Full-year revenue amounted to 1,309.1 billion yuan, accelerating to double-digit growth compared to 2024.

Following the earnings release, JD.com's CEO Sandy Xu and CFO Ian Shan attended an analyst conference call to discuss the results and answer questions.

The following is a transcript of the Q&A session:

**Goldman Sachs Analyst Ronald Keung:** I have two questions. First, regarding the home appliance and electronics categories in 2025, which were impacted by national subsidies leading to a normalization of the base in the second half, while the FMCG and general merchandise categories showed steady growth. How do you view the performance and growth trajectory for JD Retail in the first and second halves of 2026? Second, concerning the food delivery and instant commerce business, what does management see as the path to profitability improvement? Compared to leading competitors, what are JD.com's differentiated advantages driven by its supply chain? What is JD's long-term commitment to this business? Recent anti-monopoly regulatory investigations in the food delivery industry are expected to reduce internal competition; could this benefit JD's profitability in this segment?

**Sandy Xu:** Thank you for the questions. Firstly, the healthy growth trend in the FMCG category will continue. Throughout 2025, by category, even with the presence of national subsidies, our FMCG category achieved faster growth, which also drove the growth of our overall retail business. As you can see, categories like supermarkets, fashion, and health products all achieved very good growth. In 2026, we are very confident that the FMCG category will continue its healthy growth. The supermarket business also still has vast room for improvement in terms of user penetration and expansion into sub-categories. The fashion business completed its merchant recruitment layout in 2025, with more merchants and brands joining the JD.com platform. Furthermore, this year we will further unleash our growth potential. The health category will continue to maintain its industry-leading position and user mindshare.

For the home appliance and electronics categories, short-term pressures remain from the high base effect and rising raw material costs. The government's trade-in policy will continue in 2026. However, in 2025, trade-in subsidy funds were largely utilized in the first half and relatively less in the second half, whereas in 2026, the distribution pace and qualification reviews for local government subsidies are expected to be more stable. Therefore, categories like home appliances, mobile phones, computers, and electronics will still be affected by the high base in the first half, facing阶段性 pressure, but the growth rate will see significant improvement compared to Q4 2025. Growth will further recover in the second half, and the company's market share is expected to remain stable.

Additionally, continuously rising storage chip costs will drive up prices for products like mobile phones and electronics, which will somewhat suppress sales volume. However, the increase in average order value will partially offset the impact of the sales decline. We will continue to strengthen our supply chain capabilities, actively expand offline channels, and enhance the service experience to further solidify user mindshare and drive sales.

Simultaneously, artificial intelligence and new technologies are bringing numerous innovations and opportunities for new categories, which can better highlight the company's supply chain advantages. Although the contribution of these innovative products to retail scale is limited in the short term, we have already seen many development opportunities. We will work hand-in-hand with brands and suppliers to respond quickly, develop new products, and meet users' evolving consumption demands through the rapid implementation of new technologies.

Looking ahead to 2026, JD Retail's growth drivers will be more diversified: the FMCG category maintains healthy growth; service businesses like advertising achieve rapid and steady growth; the home appliance and electronics categories are affected by the high base in the first half, with growth in the second half outperforming the first half. Combined with continuous improvements in platform traffic, user base, and shopping frequency, we are confident in achieving healthy, high-quality growth for the full year.

Regarding the food delivery business, 2025 was the inaugural year for JD Food Delivery, during which we made significant investments in operations and R&D. In 2026, we will continue to strengthen capability building, increase the supply of high-quality merchants and products, and enhance the user experience. At the same time, we will gradually achieve commercialization by providing services to merchants while maintaining a reasonable monetization rate. Our goal is to continuously improve operational efficiency while the business scale grows healthily. If market competition stabilizes, the total investment in the food delivery business in 2026 will decrease compared to 2025.

JD Food Delivery's differentiated advantages are mainly reflected in three aspects: First, adhering to the positioning of "Quality Food Delivery"; Second, relying on a full-time rider team to provide a higher quality service experience; Third, leveraging the synergistic effects within the JD ecosystem to highlight the core advantage of the supply chain.

Regarding profitability improvement, we have clear levers: First, creating more diversified revenue streams; Second, continuously improving subsidy efficiency, implementing refined subsidies tailored to different users and regions; Third, as order volume grows healthily, continuously enhancing delivery efficiency through economies of scale.

It is worth noting that "7Fresh Kitchen" is our highly innovative and differentiated business model. It deeply integrates with JD's supply chain capabilities and has significant synergies with the instant commerce business. As of the end of February, over 50 7Fresh Kitchen stores have opened, and we welcome investors and analysts to experience them.

In the long term, food delivery and instant commerce are important strategic directions for JD.com. We will promote the healthy development of these businesses with a long-term perspective, continuously improve operational efficiency and profitability, while constantly unleashing their synergistic potential with the core retail business, injecting momentum into the company's long-term growth. In 2025, the food delivery business already brought new users to JD and significantly increased the shopping frequency of existing users. In 2026, synergistic effects such as cross-selling and incremental advertising revenue will continue to be realized.

Regarding regulation in the food delivery industry, our stance is: First, we support and welcome regulatory authorities maintaining fair market competition order, which is beneficial for the industry's long-term healthy development; Second, the company firmly resists vicious internal competition within the industry and will promote the high-quality development of quality food delivery through supply chain model innovation.

**UBS Analyst Kenneth Fong:** Good evening, I have two questions. First, given the current uncertainties in the domestic macro environment, and JD.com's simultaneous acceleration of overseas and Jingxi businesses, how does management balance group growth with profitability? What is the expected investment scale for emerging businesses in 2026, and what impact will this investment have on group profits? Second, regarding the overseas business, could you provide an update on the latest progress and timeline for the Ceconomy acquisition? How should we view the specific financial impact on the group after consolidation? From a strategic layout perspective, how does the company position JOYBUY? What specific synergies will it generate with JD Retail, JD Logistics, and the group's overall supply chain system?

**Ian Shan:** Thank you for the questions. Let me first address balancing group growth and profitability. From a long-term perspective, we are full of confidence in the prospects of the Chinese market and our own business development. Based on our assessment of commercial opportunities, we insist on deploying long-term businesses, including international operations, lower-tier markets, and instant commerce, while firmly investing in technology R&D. We continuously improve technical capabilities, broaden service boundaries, open up new growth spaces, and inject new momentum for the group's long-term growth.

The long-term target of a high-single-digit profit margin for JD Retail remains unchanged. Core retail profit is expected to achieve healthy growth in 2026. The drivers for this target include: improvement in merchandise gross margin driven by enhanced self-operated capabilities; strong growth in high-margin revenues like advertising; continuous optimization of profit margins in categories like supermarkets; ongoing release of economies of scale in the retail business; and further improvement in operational efficiency through the application of technologies like AI.

Regarding investment in emerging businesses: JD Food Delivery's losses narrowed by nearly 20% quarter-over-quarter in Q4. While the scale grew healthily, improved operational efficiency and revenue growth drove a significant narrowing of the loss ratio. In 2026, we will continue to promote the healthy growth of the food delivery business scale and release its synergistic value with core retail. If industry competition returns to rationality, investment in the food delivery business will decrease compared to 2025.

Investment in international business will gradually increase according to plan, with the scale remaining controllable. The company will adhere to strict investment discipline. The Jingxi business, focused on the lower-tier market and white-label product supply, has achieved significant results in improving penetration rates in sixth-tier cities and below, broadening the boundaries of JD's user growth. It also forms a differentiated synergy with the main site on the supply side. Investment in the Jingxi business will see a slight increase in 2026, with continuous optimization of the unit economic model to achieve healthy and sustainable growth.

Regarding the overseas business, the Ceconomy acquisition is still in the regulatory approval process. The company will promptly update the market on the latest developments. JOYBUY, JD's full-category e-commerce retail platform in Europe, will officially launch in March. Building overseas supply chain capabilities is a long-term process requiring sustained time and investment. Based on the trial operation, user experience feedback for JOYBUY has been positive, especially regarding fulfillment; logistics experience will become its core differentiated advantage.

We are building our own logistics fulfillment network in Europe. JD Europe Logistics (Joy Express) has been launched, achieving same-day and next-day delivery in major cities in the UK, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and other countries, also providing services like home delivery. We welcome everyone to experience it.

In terms of synergies: First, at the supply chain level: while helping Chinese brands expand overseas, we will introduce high-quality European brands to the Chinese market, further enhancing the group's global supply chain capabilities. Second, at the logistics level: as JOYBUY develops in Europe, the overseas synergy capabilities between the group's retail and logistics will continue to improve, solidifying JOYBUY's competitive moat. Third, at the technology level: the technical system capabilities accumulated by JD over the years will continue to empower the overseas business.

**Citi Analyst Alicia Yap:** I have two questions. First, considering that retail industry growth may slow in 2026, what are the company's expectations for GMV and revenue growth in the FMCG category? Against the backdrop of intensified competition and slowing consumption, how will JD achieve faster growth in this category? What specific differentiated advantages support its sustained growth? Second, could you share how the company plans and positions itself to address and seize the challenges and opportunities brought by AI agent-driven e-commerce?

**Sandy Xu:** First, regarding the FMCG category. As mentioned before, we expect this category to continue its healthy growth in 2026. This category has achieved double-digit growth for five consecutive quarters, significantly outperforming the industry average. This is thanks to the company's continuously built supply chain capabilities and greatly improved team operational efficiency, laying a solid foundation for future growth. We are confident about this category's growth in 2026, driven by three core factors:

First, the market potential is enormous. Sub-categories like supermarkets, fashion, and health have considerable market sizes, and the company still has significant room for growth. Second, user growth continues. Businesses like food delivery and Jingxi bring new traffic and new users to the platform while increasing user shopping frequency. Internal platform synergies are accelerating, with good cross-buying effects observed between categories like supermarkets and food delivery users. Third, continuous strengthening of supply chain capabilities and user mindshare: The supermarket category relies on JD's unique self-operated model, providing a superior user experience and more competitive prices. The fashion category achieved significant improvements in capabilities like search, recommendation, data, and products in 2025, attracting more high-quality brands to deepen cooperation. Meanwhile, the application of AI technology enables more accurate personalized matching in search and recommendations.

The company's differentiated advantages are mainly reflected in: First, the core barriers of JD's self-operated model, including broader product coverage and strict quality control. Second, the core capability of JD Logistics, providing high-quality fulfillment experiences. Third, from the brand perspective, JD is the platform with the most stable daily sales nationwide, a high-quality阵地 for brand building, and the platform with the highest ROI throughout a product's lifecycle, capable of bringing stable and efficient sales growth to brands.

Regarding AI agent e-commerce: We believe the opportunities for transformation brought by new technologies like AI far outweigh the challenges. Currently, AI agent e-commerce is still in its early stages, primarily affecting front-end traffic portals. However, regardless of how the traffic landscape changes, the core of the retail business remains user experience, cost, and efficiency. Therefore, we continue to focus on improving product, price, and service capabilities. JD's supply chain-driven retail advantages will be further amplified, and the moat will continue to deepen.

Simultaneously, the company is increasing technology investment. While advancing the application of self-developed large models, we maintain an open mindset and are conducting cooperation and testing with several leading external large model providers.

Third, we are gradually building an end-to-end leading AI e-commerce enterprise from supply chain to consumer. Leveraging self-operated businesses and logistics fulfillment capabilities, JD has the richest application scenarios for AI and robotics technology, which is unmatched by platform-based e-commerce. This means that more links and processes in the company's entire chain can achieve efficiency improvements through AI.

In terms of specific implementation: On the demand side, AI-driven search and recommendation are重构ing the shopping journey. On the supply side, AI helps the procurement and sales teams continuously improve efficiency in areas like pricing and inventory management, significantly replacing manual work. In physical scenarios, the potential for logistics fulfillment automation is immense, though large-scale application still requires time. On the after-sales service end, AI customer service has already been widely adopted.

Furthermore, through operational efforts, we are launching more innovative products. For example, during the Double Eleven period, sales of ecosystem products equipped with JoyInside, including AI toys, robots, and hardware, grew more than 20 times compared to the 618 period.

We are reshaping JD's competitive advantages through AI, continuously optimizing the user experience. Looking ahead, the company is fully prepared to precisely grasp the strategic opportunities presented by AI and establish a leading position in the field of AI e-commerce.

**Jefferies Analyst Thomas Chong:** Good evening, thank you management for taking the questions. I have two questions. First, could you share the latest situation regarding shareholder returns? Second, have there been any changes in the regulatory environment for internet platform companies? How should this change be interpreted?

**Ian Shan:** Thank you for the questions. Despite making significant and proactive investments in long-term strategy in 2025, the company remains committed to rewarding shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The company announced a cash dividend of $1 per ADS for the full year 2025. The dividend amount remains stable, with total cash dividends amounting to approximately $1.4 billion. This demonstrates the company's long-term commitment to providing stable cash returns to shareholders based on long-term profitability and cash flow.

Additionally, in 2025, the company spent $3 billion to repurchase approximately 6.3% of its outstanding shares (based on the share count at the end of 2024). All repurchased shares have been canceled. In the future, the company will continue to reward shareholders through healthy business development, cash dividends, and share repurchases, while continuously focusing on the healthy growth of business scale, profit, and cash flow, creating value for shareholders and sharing in JD's long-term development成果.

**Sandy Xu:** I will answer the question about the regulatory environment. First, regulators are continuously promoting the standardized development of the platform economy, which is conducive to the industry's long-term healthy development, and we welcome this. We are also committed to compliant development, and this attitude remains unchanged. Strict regulation is not a constraint but rather a driver for the industry's high-quality development.

JD.com has always regarded compliant operation as the premise for enterprise development. Regulatory requirements such as anti-monopoly, tax compliance, and resisting internal industry competition highly align with the company's long-standing philosophy of compliant operation. In an environment of normalized regulation, the industry will form a pattern where "good money drives out bad." Enterprises that operate compliantly will gain fairer development opportunities. Therefore, in the long run, the advantages of JD's compliant and sustainable operating model will gradually be amplified.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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