Soochow Securities released a research report stating that November's domestic heavy truck sales met expectations, while wholesale and export figures exceeded projections. The firm estimates the industry's total inventory coefficient at 1.8 for November, within a reasonable range. By application, construction vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles both year-on-year and month-on-month. The brokerage forecasts December wholesale heavy truck sales at approximately 115,000 units, up 40% YoY, and remains optimistic about the sector's full-year performance driven by China IV policy incentives.
**November Sales Overview** - **Production**: Heavy truck output reached 114,000 units, up 84.4% YoY and 9.8% MoM. - **Wholesale**: Sales hit 113,000 units, rising 65.4% YoY and 6.6% MoM. - **Retail (Registration)**: Terminal sales stood at 77,000 units, increasing 34.3% YoY and 9.6% MoM. - **Exports**: Overseas shipments totaled 33,000 units, up 44.0% YoY and 0.7% MoM. - **Inventory**: Industry inventory rose by 4,200 units (manufacturers +800, channels +3,400), with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8.
**Segment Performance** - **Construction Vehicles**: Retail sales reached 8,500 units (+41.2% YoY, +13.1% MoM), accounting for 11.1% of total sales. - **Logistics Vehicles**: Sales were 68,200 units (+33.5% YoY, +8.9% MoM), making up 88.9%. - **NG Trucks**: Sales dipped to 19,000 units (+70.6% YoY, -8.1% MoM), with penetration at 25.3%. For tractors, NG penetration was 40.1%.
**Market Share Trends** - **Domestic Brands**: In November, FAW Jiefang (21.1%), Dongfeng (18.0%), Sinotruk (16.9%), Shaanxi Heavy-Duty (11.0%), and Foton (12.4%) led terminal sales. Foton gained 2.0pct YoY in share. - **Exports**: Sinotruk dominated with 45.2% share (+4.3pct YoY), while FAW Jiefang and Foton also expanded overseas presence.
**Engine Market** Weichai maintained its top position with 17.4% retail share, though down 10.1pct YoY. Its NG engine share stood at 51.76%, while diesel engines accounted for 11.16%.
**Risks**: Potential slower-than-expected recovery in domestic heavy truck demand and unexpected surges in natural gas prices.
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