Against the backdrop of the largest oil supply disruption in history, triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, which has sent oil prices soaring to nearly $120 per barrel, OPEC+ is considering a symbolic production increase to signal to the market that producers are ready to boost output once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. According to a Reuters report citing two OPEC+ sources, the group's eight core member countries are scheduled to hold a meeting on Sunday, where they may discuss further raising oil production quotas. Insiders indicated that the actual supply impact of such a move would be limited, serving more as a gesture—paving the way for a potential easing of export restrictions via the Strait of Hormuz. One source stated bluntly, "We need to at least respond on paper." Another source emphasized, "The market currently needs every barrel of oil that can be produced."
Oil prices experienced sharp fluctuations this week, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to the direction of the conflict. On Wednesday, prices dipped towards $100 per barrel after former President Trump stated the US would end the war on Iran "soon"; however, they rebounded sharply on Thursday after Trump subsequently reversed course, saying military actions would continue.
The US-Israel war on Iran has caused the largest recorded oil supply disruption. The Strait of Hormuz is currently effectively closed, a channel that handles over 20% of global oil transit. Major OPEC producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have been forced to cut production as a result, pushing Brent crude prices to a four-year high near $120 per barrel. Concurrently, Russian oil output has also been disrupted by drone attacks, further tightening supplies.
OPEC+'s last meeting was held on March 1, where the group agreed to a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April, having previously kept output steady in the first quarter due to concerns about oversupply—coinciding with the period when the war began disrupting oil exports from Middle Eastern member states.
Sources noted that Sunday's meeting is typically used to set production quotas for May. Although there are currently no signs of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, any production increase OPEC+ might agree to would have little immediate effect on actual supply. The core intention is to signal to the market that producers will swiftly ramp up output once tankers can resume transit through the strait. Notably, both sources mentioned that formal consultations among member states have not yet begun, and both declined to be named. A third source suggested that, given the current export constraints, pausing the monthly production increases is also a possible option. OPEC, as well as authorities in Saudi Arabia and Russia, have declined to comment.
Among the eight core members, Russia, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman are unaffected by the Hormuz blockade, but these four countries also have limited capacity to increase production. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have alternative export routes bypassing Hormuz but are operating near full capacity. Saudi crude exports via the Yanbu port on the Red Sea have surged to approximately 4.6 million barrels per day, nearing pipeline capacity limits. The UAE continues exports from the Fujairah port, located outside the strait; according to Kpler data, Fujairah's crude and condensate exports rose from 1.17 million barrels per day in February to 1.61 million barrels per day in March, accounting for nearly half of the UAE's total pre-war exports.
Over a longer period, from April 2025 to December 2025, these eight OPEC+ members had cumulatively increased production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day, roughly 3% of global demand, before pausing the increases from January to March 2026.
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