A Painful Question: Have You Outperformed PetroChina in the Past 5 Years?

Deep News11-19

On November 18 (Eastern Time), Google officially launched its AI model Gemini 3, integrating it into its search products, signaling the company's commitment to accelerating AI commercialization.

DeepMind CEO, Google's AI research lab, hailed Gemini 3 as "the world's best multimodal understanding model" and the company's most powerful agent and code-generation model to date.

According to Google's disclosed test data, Gemini 3 Pro achieved "dominance" in multiple benchmarks, outperforming competitors like Claude Sonnet 4.5 and GPT-5.1 in Humanity’s Last Exam and the challenging MathArena competition.

Beyond Google, other developments emerged in the AI sector.

Microsoft, Nvidia, and Anthropic announced a new strategic partnership, indicating an expanding "AI ecosystem."

Meanwhile, Ant Group's AI product "Ling Guang" reportedly surpassed 200,000 downloads on its first day.

Investors worldwide are closely watching Nvidia's upcoming Q3 FY2025 earnings report, set for release early tomorrow.

As mentioned in Sunday's analysis, this earnings report could determine the near-term trajectory of AI stocks globally. The market seeks clear signals of sustained strong demand for AI chips to restore confidence in the AI industry.

Turning to the markets:

Today, China's A-share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index rose 0.18% and 0.25%, respectively, while the Shenzhen Component Index remained nearly flat. Total turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets shrank to 1.7259 trillion yuan, down 200.2 billion yuan from the previous session.

Despite the broader market's gains, market breadth weakened slightly. Only 1,200 stocks advanced, while 4,175 declined. The median stock decline was 1.49%, worse than yesterday's 1.17%.

The oil, insurance, and banking sectors drove the market's rise, with each sector index climbing over 1%. The oil sector surged 3.4%, playing a key stabilizing role.

Technically, the Shanghai Composite shows bottom divergences on 5-minute and 15-minute charts. A further dip tomorrow could trigger a 30-minute level divergence.

Three support levels exist below: 1. The November 5 low of 3,922 points. 2. The 60-day moving average (currently at 3,894.85 and rising ~3 points daily). 3. The uptrend line since September 4, now slightly below the 60-day MA.

Given these technical signals, if today marks the end of the correction, a rebound may follow. If not, any retest of these support levels could spark a bounce.

Potential resistance lies at: 1. The November 8 low of 3,980 (now resistance after being broken). 2. The psychological 4,000-point barrier.

Recent market performance has been highly polarized—correct sector bets feel like a bull market, while wrong ones bring sharp losses.

Notably, today's turnover of 1.7426 trillion yuan hit the lowest level since October 23 and ranks seventh lowest since August, reflecting cautious sentiment.

▲ Data source: Wind

Sector-wise, the oil index jumped 3.4%, hitting a 10-year high.

PetroChina Company Limited's annual chart shows five consecutive years of gains, with a staggering 350.44% rise since 2021. Many traders chasing daily fluctuations may find this long-term outperformance painful to reflect on.

Fishing and shipbuilding sectors rallied on geopolitical speculation, though this appears speculative and aligned with recent short-term trading trends.

In AI applications, most high-profile stocks that surged in the past two sessions retreated today, with broader weakness across the sector. The current rotation appears tactical rather than signaling a major uptrend.

For speculative plays, Hefu China's resumption of trading tomorrow will test market sentiment. A non-limit-down move could boost speculative activity, while a drop would prompt caution.

In summary: - A market rebound is imminent, either after a brief dip or directly. - Resistance looms at 3,980–4,000. - With turnover at 1.7 trillion yuan, cautious positioning is advised amid prevailing wait-and-see sentiment.

PS: For more insights, follow the WeChat public account "Daoda Hao."

Per the latest regulations, this analysis contains no operational recommendations—market risks are borne individually.

Cover image source: Daily Economic News (photographer: Wen Duo)

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