In the first week of November, A-shares staged a long-awaited counterattack, ending a six-week losing streak.
The turning point came on November 2 — swap facility and refinancing for share buybacks and increases were rapidly rolled out, marking a shift in policy from "expectation management" to "tool delivery."
Sentiment was the first to recover, and foreign institutions quickly gained a new anchor for reassessing A-shares. Among them, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan confirmed the significant implications of this round of combined policy measures; additionally, the oversold recovery in technology stocks also became a key focus for major foreign institutions.
At the sector level, before positive signals were released, foreign institutions were already voting with their feet. October coincided with the third-quarter earnings window, and foreign institutions were busy: 274 foreign institutional investors conducted research on A-shares, covering 367 companies, a month-on-month increase of 36.94% from September.
By sector, interest was concentrated in semiconductors, medical devices, and general equipment — hard tech leading the way, with medical recovery following behind, forming corroboration with the views of major investment banks.
So how exactly do foreign institutions view this round of positive developments? And which directions are they watching? Below, the author will break down the divergences in views and research priorities of five investment banks one by one.
Goldman Sachs: China's Stock Market May Have Formed a "Policy Bottom," AI Sector Now Offers Value
In a research report released in early November, Goldman Sachs stated that its core basis is that state-owned investment institutions have been continuously buying ETFs since mid-October, with recent buying intensity increasing.
Goldman Sachs further explained that although buying activity was mainly concentrated in CSI 300 ETFs tracking large-cap stocks, the scope of purchases has recently expanded — on November 3, six index ETFs each recorded single-day turnover exceeding 10 billion yuan, the first time since September 24, 2024.
At the micro level, Goldman Sachs was also very active in research. In October, it conducted research on 59 A-share companies. Among them, Goldman Sachs focused heavily on the technology theme while also covering leading companies in certain consumer and manufacturing sectors, displaying a clear characteristic of "technology as the spear, balancing offense and defense."
In terms of specific trading recommendations, the Goldman Sachs Asia team simultaneously released a client report titled "China: Buy the Dip?" on November 4. The report's core argument focused on sub-sectors, pointing out that China's AI sector has fallen to attractive valuations after a deep correction, and recommending buying on dips.
JPMorgan: "Policy Bottom" Has Been Established, Maintaining "High-Dividend + Growth" Barbell Strategy
Echoing Goldman Sachs's logic, JPMorgan also gave a clear "policy bottom" judgment. The bank believes that two meetings related to capital market support on November 2 marked the establishment of a policy bottom; however, forming a sustainable bottom still depends on liquidity transmission and earnings confirmation.
Strategically, JPMorgan maintained a barbell strategy — allocating to defensive high-dividend stocks on one end and growth themes on the other, and recommending buying on dips in innovation-driven AI infrastructure and healthcare (CXO/innovative drugs) sectors.
Specifically, on the growth side, JPMorgan believes that the recent correction has improved the risk-reward of the A-share AI infrastructure sector. Among them, the forward price-to-sales ratios of wafer fab equipment and back-end equipment have approached historical averages, offering decent growth prospects.
On the defensive side, as the dividend yields of large state-owned banks have fallen below 4%, the bank continues to screen the market for stocks with solid fundamentals, reasonable valuations, and dividend yields above 4%.
This strategy was confirmed in JPMorgan's October research. The list was highly focused on semiconductors and AI computing hardware, aligning with the offensive end; it also covered pharmaceutical and battery blue chips as defensive support.
Nomura: Tech Stock Correction Provides Entry Window for Long-Term Capital
In a report dated November 2, Nomura Securities argued that the support at the A-share policy bottom genuinely exists, and downside risks have been effectively limited — almost in sync with JPMorgan's judgment.
Regarding the global tech stock sell-off, Nomura acknowledged two market concerns: AI may erode tech giants' traditional businesses, and large-scale capital expenditure could turn free cash flow negative. But the bank believes neither constitutes a substantive negative: giants cannot cut AI investment, which precisely confirms strong computing demand; negative free cash flow is merely a timing gap between capital expenditure and revenue recognition, not a sign of deteriorating profitability. If the market continues to sell off on these grounds, it actually provides long-term investors with an entry opportunity.
This judgment was also reflected in its October research activities: Nomura extensively surveyed AI computing hard-tech leaders.
Citi: Related Policy Toolkit Could Inject Approximately 135 Billion Yuan
Citi recently released a research report stating that announced and upcoming measures demonstrate "policy support" that helps stabilize the market. SFISF operations and active ETFs combined could inject approximately 135 billion yuan in incremental capital into the stock market; broad-based ETFs have also recorded continuous inflows since October.
At the specific operational level, Citi pointed out in a late October report that the valuation of China's internet sector (especially leading giants) remains attractive, and AI commercialization is accelerating. Citi is bullish on internet companies enhancing advertising conversion rates and cloud business revenue through AI.
Based on October research activities, Citi conducted research on 47 companies in total, covering semiconductors, consumer electronics, communication equipment, solar, gaming, pharmaceuticals, retail, and other sectors, with broad coverage.
Morgan Stanley: Estimates at Least 70% of 800 Billion Yuan Swap Facility Quota Unused
In an early November report, Morgan Stanley pointed out that at least 70% of the 800 billion yuan swap facility quota remains unused, with remaining capacity of at least 550 billion yuan. The bank also stated that A-share sentiment indicators have fallen below the 22% technical rebound threshold, and the risk-reward ratio of some Chinese stocks has improved.
Morgan Stanley, citing historical experience, noted that after capital enters prominently, A-shares typically see a phased bottom within one to two months.
Morgan Stanley conducted research on 32 A-share companies between October 25 and 31, with semiconductors, optical communications, and consumer electronics taking absolute priority, including core AI infrastructure and hardware targets such as Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink Technology, NAURA Technology, and Luxshare Precision.
Institutions affiliated with Ge Weidong, Wang Wen, and others are eyeing these directions! Bullish on medium-to-long-term structural opportunities! Thousand-billion holdings of China Reform and China Chengtong revealed! Multiple A-share companies newly entered or increased in the third quarter! Top ten foreign institutional holdings from Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and others are here! Racing for China's hard assets! Latest holdings of Buffett, Duan Yongping, Dan Bin, Hillhouse, Gaoyi, Greenwoods, and other big names at a glance! Full list of 147 billion-yuan private equity firms. Only 4.68% of A-shares have dividend yields above 5%! 42 companies trading below net asset value. Thousand-billion holdings of the "Big Fund" revealed! 7 stocks doubled within the year! Heavy holdings of 10 top public fund managers including Zhang Kun, Xie Zhiyu, Ge Lan, and Jin Zicai revealed! Many remain bullish on AI technology!
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