Abstract
Kaiser Aluminum will report quarterly results on February 18, 2026 Post Market, and this preview consolidates the company’s latest projections, segment mix, margin context, and recent analyst commentary to set expectations for revenue, net income, profitability, and adjusted EPS.
Market Forecast
Based on its latest projections, Kaiser Aluminum guides to revenue of 902.00 million, adjusted EPS of 1.51, and EBIT of 43.50 million for the current quarter, implying year-over-year increases of 22.70%, 135.94%, and 69.26%, respectively; margin guidance was not disclosed, and market consensus has been coalescing around this trajectory. The core packaging business remains the anchor for near-term revenue, with last quarter’s 393.90 million foundation supporting volume and profitability assumptions for the quarter in focus. Within the portfolio, aerospace/high-strength products represent the most promising segment by mix uplift potential, with last quarter’s revenue of 182.20 million and an outlook tied to higher-value flat-rolled and plate applications.
Last Quarter Review
Kaiser Aluminum delivered revenue of 843.50 million, a gross profit margin of 13.60%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 39.50 million, a net profit margin of 4.68%, and adjusted EPS of 1.86, which increased 264.71% year over year. A notable highlight was the significant earnings outperformance, with adjusted EPS exceeding the prior estimate by 0.98 per share and EBIT of 49.30 million rising 134.76% year over year, while GAAP net profit expanded 70.26% quarter over quarter. The main-business mix was led by packaging at 393.90 million, followed by general engineering products at 192.20 million, aerospace/high-strength products at 182.20 million, and automotive extrusion products at 75.20 million, against a total company revenue growth of 12.81% year over year.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Packaging Products
Packaging is positioned to remain the central throughput for Kaiser Aluminum’s quarterly revenue cadence, building from last quarter’s 393.90 million and nearly half of the company’s consolidated sales. In the prior print, the 13.60% gross margin underscored progress on conversion costs and operational execution; the company’s forecast for adjusted EPS of 1.51 and revenue of 902.00 million implies a supportive volume and price mix to sustain this anchor role even without explicit margin guidance. This quarter’s stock reaction will be sensitive to any commentary that clarifies how conversion premiums, energy and freight costs, and manufacturing efficiency interact with packaging volumes to maintain or improve margin per pound. The packaging segment’s quality of earnings often reflects pass-through mechanics and disciplined price realization; a positive inflection in production yields and scrap recovery would translate into margin capture even if headline revenue growth moderates. Against this backdrop, any incremental evidence of balanced inventory conditions at customers and steady scheduling should help investors gauge the sustainability of the revenue estimate and the implied profitability on the packaging line.
Aerospace and High-Strength Products
Aerospace/high-strength products contributed 182.20 million last quarter and remain the company’s most promising mix lever for margin improvement within the current quarter. The segment’s profile features higher-spec flat-rolled and plate applications that typically carry richer conversion economics, so even modest sequential gains can have an outsized impact on consolidated margin. Production planning, product qualification cadence, and manufacturing yields will be key for translating backlog and scheduling into realized revenue and stable margins in the quarter ahead. The company’s forecast for revenue growth of 22.70% and EBIT growth of 69.26% year over year suggests an expectation of favorable mix, and this segment is well placed to contribute meaningfully if execution keeps scrap rates and cycle times aligned with plan. For investors, cues on bottleneck mitigation, alloy routing discipline, and lead-time management will be important for assessing whether the segment’s potential can be reflected in reported gross margin and operating income this quarter.
Main Business Mix and General Engineering Products
General engineering products added 192.20 million last quarter, providing a diversified complement to packaging and aerospace/high-strength exposure. While the company did not offer segment-specific guidance, the broad-based nature of general engineering demand supports volume stability, which can limit downside to consolidated results when other end-markets experience timing shifts. Execution on order intake and scheduling, together with disciplined price realization, will be instrumental in maintaining contribution margins from this business. The total-company growth framework—revenue up 22.70% year over year and adjusted EPS up 135.94% year over year in the company’s projections—implies that general engineering products should play a steadying role, even if the near-term margin narrative focuses on higher-value aerospace/high-strength volumes and packaging throughput.
Automotive Extrusion Products
Automotive extrusion products generated 75.20 million last quarter, making it the smallest of the four disclosed business lines by revenue. The segment’s quarterly impact tends to be most visible through operating leverage, as volume changes can swing conversion margins when fixed costs are spread across fewer or more pounds. For the quarter in focus, reliable scheduling and steady end-customer pull-through would help preserve profitability, yet the company’s consolidated guidance already embeds the more material drivers—packaging and aerospace/high-strength—so automotive is likely to function as a secondary contributor. Monitoring remarks on program launches, line efficiency, and alloy substitution will help investors understand whether automotive extrusions are positioned to provide an incremental margin tailwind or simply maintain baseline contribution.
Profitability, Margins, and Execution Factors
The last quarter’s 13.60% gross margin provides a reference point for assessing current-quarter profitability. While Kaiser Aluminum did not disclose a gross-margin or net-margin forecast, the EPS and EBIT projections—1.51 and 43.50 million, respectively—imply expectations for improved operating leverage and mix. The 4.68% net profit margin last quarter and GAAP net profit of 39.50 million illustrate a reacceleration story that investors will test against the current-quarter print, particularly on conversion costs, energy expense, and scrap utilization. The mechanics around price and alloy surcharge pass-throughs, combined with ongoing efforts in yield improvement and process control, often define whether margin gains accompany revenue growth in a given quarter. Any commentary that strengthens transparency around production cadence, cost absorption, and expense discipline will likely influence how the market interprets the company’s EPS trajectory.
Top-Line Growth and Earnings Trajectory
The company’s guidance for revenue of 902.00 million and adjusted EPS of 1.51 suggests a substantial step-up in profitability, with year-over-year growth of 22.70% in revenue and 135.94% in adjusted EPS. In the last quarter, adjusted EPS of 1.86 beat expectations materially, and EBIT of 49.30 million expanded 134.76% year over year—this establishes a baseline of execution that investors will look to see sustained. The quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 70.26% last quarter also points to momentum that, if supported by mix and cost management this quarter, can sustain investor confidence in the earnings path. On the day of the release, the balance of top-line delivery versus margin quality—how much of the EPS is driven by mix, volume, and cost discipline—will be central to the stock’s reaction.
What Will Most Influence the Stock Price This Quarter
Three elements stand out: the realized gross margin relative to the 13.60% benchmark, the alignment of reported adjusted EPS versus the 1.51 guidance, and the narrative around mix—especially aerospace/high-strength contributions—into consolidated results. A clean revenue print near 902.00 million will matter, but the stock’s reaction tends to be sharper when margin clarity improves and EBIT aligns with or exceeds the 43.50 million projection. The last quarter’s revenue arrived slightly below estimate by 6.50 million, yet EPS and EBIT strength carried the day; investors will again focus on whether margin resilience and operating discipline offset any top-line variability. Guidance tone for the subsequent quarter and commentary on cost trajectories will also factor into valuation judgments, particularly with a recent rating change that suggests cautious institutional positioning into the event.
Analyst Opinions
The majority view among institutions captured in the period under review is cautious, with a recent Wells Fargo action setting the tone. Wells Fargo downgraded Kaiser Aluminum to Equalweight on January 13, 2026 and adjusted its price target to $120 from $108, signaling a balanced risk-reward view into the quarter even as the target acknowledges improved earnings capacity. The downgrade implies that, despite the company’s strong prior-quarter execution and robust year-over-year projections for adjusted EPS and EBIT, valuation and visibility considerations temper the near-term upside case. From a portfolio perspective, an Equalweight stance often reflects the judgment that positive drivers—such as mix improvement in aerospace/high-strength products and continued packaging throughput—are matched by uncertainties around margin durability and cost normalization, and thus warrant a wait-and-see approach at current levels. For the upcoming print, this cautious posture lines up with the stock-price drivers described above: the market is likely to reward clear evidence of margin advancement and an EPS outcome at or above the 1.51 estimate; absent these, the reaction could be constrained by the normalized view embedded in the downgrade. Importantly, the raised price target to $120 recognizes the company’s earnings trajectory shown in recent results and embedded in guidance, yet the Equalweight rating encourages confirmation through delivered margins and consistent operating performance. With the ratio of bearish to bullish commentary leaning bearish given the downgrade, the near-term institutional narrative is to validate growth and margins through execution rather than presume multiple expansion ahead of the release. This sets a practical threshold for the report: if packaging margins prove steady, aerospace/high-strength mix contributes visibly to EBIT, and adjusted EPS aligns with guidance or better, sentiment could shift more constructively; until then, the prevailing view remains cautious.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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