On October 28, gold prices staged an upward move during yesterday's session. Asian trading opened with little volatility, but the white session began leaning toward a pullback, dipping to around 3990 before rebounding. The US session accelerated further, pushing prices directly above 4060 in the evening, allowing range-bound long positions to capture considerable gains. Gold ultimately closed at 4060 dollars, posting a second consecutive bullish daily candle.
On Wednesday, October 28, at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision. Market pricing for "keeping rates unchanged" has already reached over ninety percent. Since a hike was just implemented in September, skipping one this time is not surprising in itself. The focus remains on the Fed Chair's subsequent remarks. However, he has consistently avoided providing forward guidance and dislikes telling the market in advance what the next step will be. Therefore, tonight's press conference will likely lack any "explicit commitments," leaving the market to speculate on its own. This kind of "ambiguity" itself makes gold bulls uncomfortable—without a clear dovish signal, there is no justification for aggressive long positioning. Warsh has promised not to give forward guidance, making it more likely that he will "leak" his true stance when pressed. What you need to watch is not whether he says "will there be a hike," but rather these types of phrasing: if he emphasizes "sticky inflation," "there is still work to do," and affirms the necessity of the September hike, then a December hike is essentially locked in, which is bearish, and gold could directly probe 4000 or even the 3960-3970 zone. If he continues to play tai chi, saying "conditions are broadly in line with expectations," "meeting by meeting," and "no pre-judgment," being hawkish without escalating, then volatility will intensify, range-bound tug-of-war will persist, and volatility will spike. Finally, if he mentions softening employment, acknowledges slowing growth momentum, and downplays further tightening, signaling the rate hike cycle is nearing its end, then gold is bullish and could directly surge toward 4092 or even the 4125-4150 zone.
From a technical perspective, gold is likely to undergo consolidation and digestion today, guarding against the Fed's rate decision in the early hours of tomorrow while also digesting the overnight abnormal price action. Technically, on the upside during the day, attention first goes to the previous low around 4065-70 for contention. The main resistance can be raised to the 10-day moving average near 4090, which is also the trendline pressure connecting previous lows. Above that, strong resistance remains focused around the 20-day moving average near 4120, which is also the upper trendline pressure from the prior downtrend. On the downside during the day, attention first goes to contention around the 5-day moving average near 4030. In short, tonight's suspense is not about "whether they move or not," but about how Warsh speaks. Both bulls and bears are waiting for Warsh to open his mouth tonight—before the decision, a wait-and-see sentiment is the main theme; after the decision, direction will truly emerge. For ordinary investors like you and me, the greatest taboo is to heavily bet on direction on the "eve of a major event." Tonight, don't rush to be a hero. The prudent approach is to let Warsh finish speaking first, then we act. Of course, aggressive traders can place early bets with proper stop-loss and take-profit levels. Therefore, for intraday operations, the recommendation is: Gold: Short at 4060-4055, stop-loss at 4070, target 4000-3980, hold if broken. Key financial data and events to watch today: Wednesday, October 28, 2026, 22:30 Bank of Canada Governor Macklem holds a press conference; next day 02:00 Fed FOMC announces rate decision; next day 02:30 Fed Chair Warsh holds a press conference. SINA partners with major platforms for futures account opening—safe, fast, and secure. SINA disclaimer: This message is reprinted from a SINA partner media outlet. SINA publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not imply endorsement of or agreement with its views or verification of its description. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operating based on this do so at their own risk.
Comments