The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has damaged distillation units at several Russian refineries, leading to a sustained decline in operating rates. Industry attention is now fixed on the Russian coke market, with robust demand-side procurement supporting prices. Can prices continue to rise amid these conditions?
1. Overview of the Russian Market
Key Russian refineries include: Angarsk (producing coke with sulfur content below 2%), Komsomolsk-on-Amur (sulfur below 2%), Novokuybyshevsk (sulfur around 4.5%), and Ufa (sulfur around 4.5%).
Gazprom Neft's Omsk refinery produces coke with sulfur content below 2%. Lukoil's PERM refinery produces coke with 3% sulfur, Volgograd produces below 2%, and Nizhny Novgorod produces around 4.5%. Tatneft's refinery produces coke with sulfur around 4%, while Antipinsky (Tyumen) produces coke with 3.2-3.5% sulfur.
2. Rising Demand Driving Steady Growth in Russian Coke Imports
China, a major energy consumer, produces 28-30 million tonnes of petroleum coke annually. However, with downstream industry chain expansion, annual consumption reaches 42-44 million tonnes, creating a widening supply gap filled by overseas imports.
Customs data shows that from 2021 to 2025, China's total Russian coke imports grew from 860,000 tonnes to 2.64 million tonnes, a five-year compound annual growth rate of 32%.
By import specification, coke with sulfur content above 3% has seen year-on-year increases, reaching 2.47 million tonnes in 2025, accounting for 93% of total Russian coke imports. This material, primarily from Rosneft and Tatneft refineries with sulfur content of 3.8-4.5% and vanadium content of 800-950 ppm, is mainly purchased by calcining companies for producing standard calcined coke used in anode materials. Coke with sulfur content below 3% is primarily used in aluminum carbon blending. Omsk's coke, valued for its stable specifications, is also purchased by some anode material producers for synthetic graphite production, supporting its price.
3. Russian Coke Imports Account for 18% in H1 2026, Up 18.18% Year-on-Year
Customs data shows that total petroleum coke imports in the first half of 2026 were 8.11 million tonnes, a decrease of 185,700 tonnes or 2.24% year-on-year.
Russian coke imports reached 1.44 million tonnes, an increase of 221,000 tonnes or 18.18%, accounting for 18% of total imports. Monthly imports ranged from 110,000 to 380,000 tonnes, with concentrated arrivals in March and June. Current Russian coke imports remain dominated by high-sulfur material, shipped by sea or rail, primarily for pre-baked anode and anode material applications.
4. Conflict Reduces Russian Coke Supply, Boosting Standard Coke Prices
The worsening Russia-Ukraine situation has seen key refineries like Omsk suffer damage to coking units (CDU and secondary processing units), paralyzing over 40% of Russia's refining capacity and reducing petroleum product output.
Market research from Longzhong indicates that affected refineries produce mainly medium-sulfur coke (1.8% sulfur) and standard coke (4% sulfur). Overseas information sources suggest high-sulfur standard coke is the most impacted specification. China's own 3A and 4A standard coke can serve as substitutes. Omsk's refinery is expected to resume production by late July, with Tatneft's resuming by early September, suggesting short-term supply tightness.
Carbon producers maintain need-based procurement, with market sentiment driving faster port clearance for Russian coke. Active demand-side inquiries have pushed transaction prices up 20-50 yuan/tonne from early July. Port traders, exhibiting some reluctance to sell and with some cargo locked in for calcining firms, are supporting domestic high-sulfur standard coke prices, which rose about 110 yuan/tonne (5%) from early July. With active procurement for anode materials and expectations of reduced future arrivals of Tatneft's high-sulfur standard coke, market sentiment remains bullish for this specification, with predicted price increases of 50-100 yuan/tonne, effectively supporting similar domestic refinery products.
Comments