Between September 19 and 20, only 12 traceable dry bulk and tanker vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, a decline of roughly 66% compared to the 35 ships recorded the previous weekend. This figure falls significantly below the pre-conflict daily average of about 125 large commercial ships, indicating that regional tensions continue to sharply compress the visible flow of maritime traffic along this critical energy artery.
The two-day total represents less than 10% of the pre-war single-day throughput for identifiable cargo ships. While the prior weekend saw 35 vessels pass through, the latest data suggest that the brief recovery in shipping activity has once again contracted noticeably. The statistics are based on tracks captured by the Automatic Identification System, covering tankers, product carriers, LNG vessels, and some bulk carriers. As certain ships switch off or reduce their signal frequency in high-risk waters, the tracked vessel count primarily reflects publicly visible shipping operations, while actual traffic also includes vessels navigating with low visibility protocols.
Ongoing security threats continue to deter shipowners from taking new bookings in the region. The Strait of Hormuz remains classified as a high-risk maritime zone, and recent attacks on commercial vessels, coupled with regional military operations, have forced owners to reassess crew safety, insurance coverage, and convoy arrangements before entering the Persian Gulf. Even when passage is ultimately granted, waiting times, insurance premiums, and chartering costs rise in tandem with the elevated risk profile. For large crude carriers, a single voyage delay can tie up weeks of capacity, further reducing the number of vessels immediately available to load Middle Eastern cargoes.
Damage to alternative export routes has amplified the pressure on the strait. During the first half of 2025, the Strait of Hormuz carried an average of approximately 20.9 million barrels of oil and other liquid fuels per day, accounting for about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, while over 20% of worldwide LNG trade also transited the waterway during the same period. Asia remains the primary destination, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea collectively receiving roughly 74% of the strait's crude and condensate shipments. The Saudi east-west pipeline, a key overland alternative to bypass the strait, was shut down after an attack and is expected to require three to five weeks for repairs. Previously, the line moved between 2.6 million and 4.0 million barrels per day to the Red Sea. With this alternative route disrupted, more Gulf crude is forced back toward the Strait of Hormuz, yet the simultaneous drop in vessel transits means any supply recovery will face binding constraints across capacity, insurance, and security.
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